Spring 2011

If you thought spring was really warm and dry. You are right, it was warm and dry. Here is the outcome for Spring, which is from March to May for the Upper Texas Coast.

Temperature
71.8°F

1895-2011 Spring Temperature
Mean
69.2°F

Median
69.1°F

Standard Deviation
1.6

Percentile
5th
67°F

25th
68.2°F

50th
69.1°F

75th
70.5°F

95th
71.5°F

Spring 2001 temperature is 2.6°F above normal, which is abnormally warm. Spring 2011 is the fifth warmest spring on record, going back to 1895. Here is where Spring 2011 temperature ranks.
1.) 1908 72.3667°F
2.) 1967 72.2000°F
3.) 1963 72.1667°F
4.) 2006 72.0333°F
5.) 2011 71.8000°F
6.) 1929 71.7000°F
7.) 1953 71.4333°F
8.) 1991 71.4333°F
9.) 1927 71.4000°F
10.)2000 71.4000°F

Rainfall Total
2.87 Inches of Rain

1895-2011 Spring Rainfall
Mean
10.66

Median
10.17

Standard Deviation
4.49

Percentile
5th
4.32

25th
7.16

50th
10.17

75th
13.25

95th
19.00

Spring 2001 rainfall is 7.79 inches below normal. Spring 2011 is the second driest on record for the Upper Texas Coast. Here is where Spring 2011 rainfall total ranks.
1.) 2003 2.56
2.) 2011 2.87
3.) 1963 2.91
4.) 1996 3.13
5.) 1978 3.26
6.) 1998 3.32
7.) 1960 4.57
8.) 1899 5.02
9.) 1958 5.30
10.)1961 5.33

What does summer rainfall hold? There is no correlation between spring and summer rainfall total as shown in this scatter chart.

Here is the correlation value from 1895 to 2010.
r = 0.02
p-value = 0.82

There is no correlation between spring and summer rain. It could either be wet or dry summer. Interesting to note that some of the driest spring on record gave way to really wet summers. Here are summer totals following dry springs.
1.) 2003 16.91
2.) 2011 NA
3.) 1963 9.87
4.) 1996 18.4
5.) 1978 12.14
6.) 1998 11.13
7.) 1960 24.46*
8.) 1899 15.09
9.) 1958 7.87
10.)1961 23.06*

*Top 10 Wettest Summer

Some of the wettest summers on record for Upper Texas Coast occurred after a dry spring, 1960 and 1961 had wet summers in the top 10 wettest summers on record. So, not all is lost. Perhaps, we could see a wet summer. So there is hope that summer could be wet. As they say in Texas, droughts end in floods. Let’s see what happened following dry springs.
2003 Hurricane Claudette and Tropical Storm Grace make landfall.
1963 Hurricane Cindy makes landfall in East Texas. Dumps up to 23.5 inches of rain in Deweyville, Texas.
1996 Heavy rain falls in August from the outer bands of Hurricane Dolly.
1978 Hurricane Debra makes landfall in Cameron Parish, Louisiana.
1998 Tropical Storm Charley and Frances make landfall on Upper Texas Coast. Charley dumps 4 to 6 inches of rain, while Frances dumps up to 20 inches of rain.
1960 Tropical Storm #1 makes landfall in South Texas. Up to 30 inches of rain falls in Port Lavaca, Texas.
1899 A massive flood plagues the Brazos River Valley from June 27 to July 1.
1958 None
1961 Hurricane Carla makes landfall around Port Lavaca.

Here are the top 10 wettest summer for the Upper Texas Coast.
1.) 1960 24.46
2.) 1981 24.06
3.) 2007 24.01
4.) 2001 23.16
5.) 1942 23.10
6.) 1961 23.06
7.) 1919 22.82
8.) 1983 21.93
9.) 1945 21.66
10.) 1973 21.49

Source
NOAA Divisional Weather

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