Start Of 2011 Hurricane Season

It is June 1, which is the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Yes, it is this time of the year. Hurricanes menacing the coast and making landfall. Anyways, here is the names for 2011.
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney

This name list was used in 2005, so you will not see Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma. They were devastating storms. What is my prediction for this season? I still maintain my prediction of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes with a ACE of 150. Keep in mind the prediction is subject to change. The analog season for 2011 are 1955, 1989, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2008 as shown on this map.

Here is a up close map of Texas with analog season (1955, 1989, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2008).

The reason I think this season will be active is that most models are forecasting neither La Nina or El Nino phase of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by the peak season. However, some models do predict El Nino could return. Keep in mind they are just computer models. Sometimes, El Nino have developed, like in 2006, which made it a less active season.

I am confident that ENSO will be in a Neutral phase. Neutral phase of ENSO is usually active like La Nina. Some of the most active seasons occurred in Neutral Seasons, like 1995 and 2005. Also, they came off of an El Nino, unlike this season which is coming off of a La Nina. The analog seasons had a La Nina winter and spring prior to the hurricane season. Some went Neutral (1989, 1996, and 2001), while others went back to La Nina again (1955, 1999, and 2000). Those seasons were active and devastating, especially 1955, 1989, 1996, 1999, 2001, and 2008.

Regardless of how active or inactive this season is, we should always be prepared. It only takes one.

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One thought on “Start Of 2011 Hurricane Season

  1. i still say as i said on your previous post, your prediction and everyone else’s prediction is too high, lovesdos

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