May 2011 Hurricane Forecast

This video made by Impact Weather forecasts that the upcoming hurricane season will be active. The analog years in the video are 1989, 1996, 2000, 2001, and 2008.

1989, 2001, and 2008 were bad years for the Upper Texas Coast.
1989-Allison, Chantal, and Jerry
2001-Allison
2008-Edouard and Ike

Tropical Storm Allison in 1989 and 2001 were June landfalls and dumped heavy rain on Southeast Texas. The 2001 Allison was much worse as it flooded Houston after 28 inches of rain fell in 12 hours. 2008 had Ike, which was devastating after it produced 25 foot high storm surge. Ike was the third costliest storm after Katrina and Andrew.

Here is the statistics for the analog years including 1955. I excluded 2006, which was listed as an analog year by Dr. William M. Gray and Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach at Colorado State University in April.

Mean
13/8/4 ACE: 149 ACE/Storm: 11

Median
13/8/5 ACE: 144 ACE/Storm: 12

Standard Deviation
2/1/2 ACE: 33 ACE/Storm: 4

From there, we could see from 12 to 15 named storms, 7 to 9 hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes in the upcoming hurricane season.

Here is a map of the analog season.

Here is a up close map of Texas with analog season (1955, 1989, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2008).

Notice that Upper Texas Coast is the target in the analog years, which are 1989, 2001, and 2008.

The high risk area are the Carolinas, Northeast, Louisiana, and Upper Texas Coast. 2011 Hurricane Season could be bad for us. Also, we are in a serious drought. Most droughts in Texas end in heavy rain and floods and that is likely the case with this drought.

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One thought on “May 2011 Hurricane Forecast

  1. Good stuff! I am using analog years of 1996, 1999, 2000, and 2008. I’ve been researching the ONI and 2008 seems to be the top pick as far as an analog.

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