2011 Weather Predictions

As we bid adieu to 2010, it time to look at the year. 2010 was a crazy year in weather, ranging from Haitian Earthquake, strong El Nino that gave America cold winters, hot summers, active Atlantic hurricane season, La Nina, and brutally cold winters in Europe and East Coast of America. That sums it up quite well. Anyways, here is what I think could happen in weather wise for 2011.

As we continue this strong La Nina, I expect winter will be mild, especially in the South, mostly in Texas and Louisiana. However, I cannot rule out an Arctic blast or two. The Winter of 1950-51 and 1988-1989 were La Nina and they had huge Arctic blasts that were prolonged. Also, I would not be surprised if the East Coast gets another blizzard or two, which is unusual because of La Nina. The reason is La Nina causes the jet stream to go further north, usually in the Upper Midwest and Ohio River Valley.

I think we could see a more active tornado season, like in 2008, which was a La Nina winter. I don’t want to scare anyone, I would not be surprised if we see a huge tornado outbreak like the Super Tornado Outbreak of 1974. 1974 was a La Nina spring when the outbreak occurred. The La Nina in Winter of 1973-1974 was one of the strongest La Nina on record, after the Winter of 1972-1973 was a strong El Nino. I would not be surprised if Texas sees a huge flood event. The reason is , in May of 1989 had a huge flood event that stuck Southeast and East Texas. May 1989 was in a La Nina Spring that time which Spring 2011 is forecasted to be in.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2011 could be an active one. The reason is that La Nina may persist or it could be Neutral by June 2011. In fact, the analog for 2011 Hurricane Season are 1956, 1961, 1989, 1999, and 2008. It could be just as active as 2010 and I think America’s luck will run out in 2011. 1961, 1989, 1999, and 2008 were bad for Texas because hurricanes made landfall.
1961-Carla
1989-Allison, Chantal, and Jerry
1999-Bret
2008-Dolly, Edouard, and Ike

1961, 1989, and 2008 were bad for the Upper Texas Coast that included Houston area. I think 1989 is a good analog for 2011 Hurricane Season because 1989 Hurricane Season came off of a strong La Nina, which we are.

As for the winter of 2011-2012, indications are that we could see a cold winter. There is a possibility that if we go into an El Nino towards the end of 2011. The last time a year went from La Nina to El Nino was 2006. The winter of 2006-2007 was cold and rainy for Southeast Texas. There was an ice storm in January and an Arctic blast in April of 2007. Here are winters that were previously La Nina and went to El Nino the following winter:
1875-1876
1886-1887
1903-1904-1904-1905 Winter was one of the coldest winters.
1910-1911
1917-1918
1950-1951
1956-1957
1962-1963-1963-1964 Winter was one of the coldest winters.
1971-1972-Had three snow events in 1972-1973 Winter.
1975-1976-Winter of 1976-1977 is one of the coldest winters.
2005-2006-Winter of 2006-2007 had a January ice storms and a rare April snowfall north of Houston.
2008-2009-Winter of 2009-2010 is one of the coldest winters on record.

Top 10 Coolest Winter
1977-1978 48.9
1894-1895 49.2*
2009-2010 49.7
1904-1905 49.8
1898-1899 50.1
1963-1964 50.2
1976-1977 50.2
1983-1984 50.6
1978-1979 50.7
1939-1940 51.0
1972-1973 51.0
* No data for December of 1894
Bold indicates El Nino Winters that occurred after La Nina Winter.

Climate Prediction Center-ENSO Previous Events (1951-present)
Japanese Meteorological Agency-ENSO

Finally, something tells me that we may see a huge solar flare event as the Sun enters a more active sunspot cycle. We may see a huge solar storm on the level of the Carrington Event of 1859, sometimes between 2011 to 2013. If that was to happen, it would be catastrophic and there would be massive power outages. It would take years to recover from a massive solar flare like in 1859. Let’s hope we are prepared for a future solar flare event.

I wish everyone a Happy New Year!

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2 thoughts on “2011 Weather Predictions

  1. Looks like you’re wrong. Texas has a high that is not going anywhere soon so we should be fine, except for the drought. You were certainly wrong about flooding in May. Obviously averages & history do not mean a thing when it comes to predicting weather.

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