2019-2020 Winter Forecast

It is this time again. Winter is here and Christmas is coming. Christmas comes sooner and sooner every year. I cannot believe that 2010’s is about to enter memory lane as we enter the 2020s. 2000 felt like yesterday as we feared Y2K bug, but nothing serious happened. The new Millennium start in 2001. In many ways, the new Millennium started on September 11, 2001 when Al-Qaeda terrorists flew into the World Trade Center, Pentagon, and near Shanksville claiming 3,000 lives.

We currently have a warm neutral equatorial Pacific. It is hard to say if El Nino is developing or not. However, the water off the coast of Alaska is very warm, which is a factor I have taken into account. It is dubbed “The Blob” or I call it the Northeast Pacific Warm Pool. What will the Winter of 2019-2020 be like? I will start with winters that have warm neutral equatorial Pacific.
1880-1881
1883-1884
1884-1885
1885-1886
1891-1892
1895-1896
1900-1901
1919-1920
1923-1924
1946-1947
1952-1953
1953-1954
1958-1959
1978-1979
1989-1990
1990-1991
1993-1994
2003-2004

Here is a map of the most recent sea surface temperature anomaly. It is as of 12/23/2019.

Here is annotated version.

I will also look at the ocean temperature as they are factors besides El Nino. This will help narrow it down to which winter analogs they are. They are Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (TPI IPO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIOI), Roaring Forties (R40I)/Southern Ocean, and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). The rest that are not linked, please click on Climate Indices. Not all El Nino winters are the same.

Here is the chart of analogs.

Year	ENSO	TPI IPO	PDO	AMO	NEPWP	EIOI	DMI	R40I	QBO	Total	Note
1880-1881	1			1	1			1		4	No QBO Data
1883-1884	1			1	1			1		4	No QBO Data
1884-1885	1		1	1	1					4	No QBO Data
1885-1886	1			1		1				3	No QBO Data
1891-1892	1			1			1			3	No QBO Data
1895-1896	1			1	1					3	No QBO Data
1900-1901	1		1							2	No QBO Data
1919-1920	1				1					2	No QBO Data
1923-1924	1						1			2	No QBO Data
1946-1947	1	1		1	1					4	No QBO Data
1952-1953	1	1		1			1			4
1953-1954	1			1			1			3
1958-1959	1		1	1						3
1978-1979	1		1		1	1		1	1	6
1989-1990	1	1	1		1	1	1	1		7
1990-1991	1	1	1		1	1	1	1	1	8
1993-1994	1		1		1	1	1	1		6
2003-2004	1			1		1	1	1		5

I narrow down to these analog winters.
1978-1979
1989-1990
1990-1991
1993-1994
2003-2004

I will use those winters for the analog winter forecast. Let’s look at the upper air pattern at the 500 millibar level or 18,000 feet. All the maps are from 20th Century Reanalysis Monthly Composites.

There is ridging south of Alaska, Arctic Ocean, and Greenland. The ridging over Gulf Of Alaska and Far East Russia are negative East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO). They are the North Pacific equivalent of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Ridging over Greenland is a negative NAO. A negative NAO, EPO, and WPO are more favorable for cold winters. The ridging allows cold air to be shunted southward. The areas under the ridging are warmer as a result. All the cold air went to a different area.

What will the temperature be like at the surface?

Most of North America and Siberia are cold. Southeast Texas winter temperature is not abnormally cold or warm, but within average. Regardless, this suggests this winter could be a cold one. Greenland, Mongolia, and Korea are warmer than normal, but not overtly warm.

Let’s look at temperature at 850 millibars or 5,000 feet.

The air is cold at 5,000 feet over Canada and Siberia. It is not abnormally cold over Texas. The reason I am including this is if is freezing cold above the surface, it increases the chance for snow in the winter. One can have freezing cold at the surface, but warm above ground. That leads to freezing rain or sleet. For snow to form, the upper atmosphere needs to be cold. Snowfall occurs if the surface is not cold because the atmosphere is freezing. It is above that counts. Often when it snows, the surface is not really that cold.

Lastly, let’s look at precipitation rate.

The Western US looks to be dry. The wettest looks to be around Hawaii, Southeastern US, and Western Europe. Houston area could see a wetter than normal winter, but not overtly wet winter. The last time the Northeast Pacific Warm Pool was warm was in 2013-2014. There a severe drought that plagued California. The warm Northeast Pacific Warm Pool contributed to the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge.

How were winters like in these analog years?

1978-1979
Coldest winter recorded in America. The late 1970s and just the 1970s was cold in general. It was cold all over the Lower 48.

1989-1990
The winter to remember with December 1989 freeze. Many areas set record lows, which are yet to be broken as of 2019. Houston saw a low of 7°F on December 22, 1989! Houston has seen single digit temperatures in February 1899 twice and January 1930. Houston presumably had single digits in January 1886. The epic freeze affected east of the Rocky Mountains. After the cold blast, winter was mild throughout America. The December 1989 freeze ranks up there with January 1886, February 1895, February 1899, and December 1983.

1990-1991
Almost a year after the epic December 1989 freeze, America sees another freeze. It mainly affects the Western US. It is one of the worst freeze for California. Houston area sees another freeze. Western Europe had a cold winter, particularly United Kingdom. Many areas in Europe saw heavy snow.

1993-1994
The cold blast on January 1994 that affected the Eastern US. Houston saw snow in February 1994. There was an ice storm in February 1994.

2003-2004
The December 2003 Nor’easter that dumped heavy snow throughout the Northeastern US. It is one of the largest early season Nor’easter. Another Nor’easter dubbed White Juan ravages the Eastern US and Maritime Provinces of Canada in February 2004. It dumped heavy snow of up to 40 inches.

What these winters have in common is there was a huge cold blast. Also, the winters are among the coldest on record. Does this mean we will see another December 1989 freeze this winter or a warm winter after the December 1989 cold blast? No, but we could see a cold blast or warm winter this winter.

I think this winter is looking to be a cold winter. I would not be surprised to hear of a major cold blast this coming winter or snow fall. I could see major winter storms happening on top potent cold waves.

2018-2019 Winter Forecast

It is this time. Winter is here and Christmas is coming. Christmas comes sooner and sooner every year. We have a warming equatorial Pacific, which suggests El Nino is developing. What will the Winter of 2018-2019 be like? Since we had La Nina last winter and a developing El Nino. Here are El Nino in which the previous winter was La Nina.
1876-1877
1899-1900
1904-1905
1911-1912
1918-1919
1925-1926
1939-1940
1951-1952
1957-1958
1963-1964
1965-1966
1968-1969
1972-1973
1976-1977
1986-1987
1997-1998
2006-2007
2009-2010

Here is a map of sea surface temperature anomaly.

I will also look at the ocean temperature as they are factors besides El Nino, to narrow it down. They are Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (TPI IPO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIOI), Roaring Forties (R40I), and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). The rest that are not linked, please click on Climate Indices. Not all El Nino winters are the same.

Here is the chart of analogs.

Year	ENSO	TPI IPO	PDO	AMO	NEPWP	EIOI	DMI	R40I	QBO	Total	Note
1876-1877	1		1	1	1		1	1		6	No QBO Data
1899-1900	1	1	1	1				1		5	No QBO Data
1904-1905	1	1								2	No QBO Data
1911-1912	1	1	1							3	No QBO Data
1918-1919	1	1				1	1			4	No QBO Data
1925-1926	1	1		1			1			4	No QBO Data
1939-1940	1	1	1				1			4	No QBO Data
1951-1952	1	1	1	1	1	1	1			7
1957-1958	1	1		1	1	1			1	6
1963-1964	1	1	1			1			1	5
1965-1966	1	1				1				3
1968-1969	1	1				1	1	1		5
1972-1973	1	1	1		1	1	1	1		7
1976-1977	1	1				1	1	1		5
1986-1987	1	1			1	1	1	1		6
1997-1998	1	1		1		1	1	1	1	7
2006-2007	1	1	1	1		1	1	1	1	8
2009-2010	1	1	1	1		1	1	1		7

I narrowed it down.
1876-1877
1899-1900
1951-1952
1957-1958
1963-1964
1968-1969
1972-1973
1976-1977
1986-1987
1997-1998
2006-2007
2009-2010

To further it, I narrow down even further.
1876-1877
1951-1952
1972-1973
1997-1998
2006-2007
2009-2010

I will use this as the analog winter forecast. Let’s look at the upper air pattern at the 500 millibar level or 18,000 feet. All the maps are from 20th Century Reanalysis Monthly Composites.

There is ridging over Northeast Canada and Greenland. That is a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A negative NAO is more favorable for cold winters. Some of the coldest winters have occurred due to negative NAO as cold air from the Arctic region is shunted southward. There is troughing over Gulf Of Alaska and Far East Russia, which are positive East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO). They are the North Pacific equivalent of NAO. There have been freezes when NAO is positive while EPO and WPO are negative, which is ridging over Alaska and Far East Russia. December 1983 and February 1989 freeze occurred due to negative EPO despite positive NAO.

What will the temperature be like at the surface?

Most of Russia, Central Asia, Arctic, and Alaska are cold. Same goes with Eastern US and Texas. This suggests this winter could be a cold one. Some of the coldest winters on record occurred in those analog years of 1972-1973 and 2009-2010. It is most warm over Northeastern Canada, Greenland, Korea, Japan, North Africa, and Southern Europe. It is no surprise that Northeastern Canada and Greenland are warm as there is ridging over the area.

Let’s look at temperature at 850 millibars or 5,000 feet.

The air is cold at 5,000 feet over Russia, Central Asia, Arctic, and Alaska. It is also cold mainly over Texas. The reason I am including this is if is freezing cold above the surface, it increases the chance for snow in the winter. One can have freezing cold at the surface, but warm above ground. That leads to freezing rain or sleet. For snow to form, the upper atmosphere needs to be cold. Snowfall occurs if the surface is not cold because the atmosphere is freezing. It is above that counts. Often when it snows, it is not really that cold.

Lastly, let’s look at precipitation rate.

It looks most wettest in Southeastern US, Southwest, and West Coast. It is also wet in Southern China, Korea, and Japan. It is also wet in Northern India, Nepal, Spain and Portugal. Southeast Texas looks to see about average rainfall.

How were winters like in these analog years?

1876-1877
I cannot find any weather records for Texas that winter. England and Wales had their wettest winter on record.

1951-1952
One of the warmest winters on record for Southeast Texas. It is warm throughout the US.

1972-1973
Houston had three 1 inch or higher snowfall on January 11, February 9-10, and February 17-18. It is Houston’s snowiest winter on record since 1895 when 20 inches of snow fell on February 14-15, 1895. New York City records the least amount of snow in winter on record of 2.80 inches. The winter is one of the coldest on record for Southeast Texas.

1997-1998
The world is gripped by an extremely strong El Nino. Western US had record rainfall, while Indonesia has a severe drought. It is one of Texas’s wettest winter on record.

2006-2007
Freezing rain on January 16-17, 2007. It is part of the much larger North American Ice Storm.

2009-2010
Houston records earliest 1 inch snowfall on December 4, 2009. Second snowfall on February 23, 2010. It is one of the coldest winter on record for Southeast Texas.

Does this mean 2018-2019 winter will be record cold like in 1972-1973 or 2009-2010 or warm like 1951-1952? Does this mean we will see a freezing cold or warm winter? Does this mean we will see many snowfall this winter? Not necessarily. It can go either way.

I think this winter could be a cold winter. I would not be surprised to hear of a major cold blast this coming winter or snow falls again. I could see major winter storms happening.

2016-2017 Winter

Another winter has past. It is now spring again. We really had no winter with the exception of the Pacific Northwest where it got cold. Most of America was wondering where is winter. It felt like another spring. How did this winter stack up?

5 Kilometer Gridded Map Of Temperature Anomaly

Most of the US experienced warmer than normal winter. Some had record warmth winter, especially in Texas, Louisiana, Florida, and New Mexico. Washington, Oregon, and Idaho had cooler than normal winter. The mean temperatures tell you a lot. Of course, the devils are in the details.

5 Kilometer Gridded Map Of Minimum Temperature Anomaly

The low temperatures were quite warm in areas where they had record warmth. The areas that were cooler than normal had cooler low temperatures. No surprise there.

5 Kilometer Gridded Map Of Maximum Temperature Anomaly

The high temperature anomaly is not as large as compared minimum temperature anomaly. Low and high temperature can have an impact on overall mean temperature. One can have a cool winter if the low temperatures are high, while high temperatures are low or vice versa.

5 Kilometer Gridded Map Of Rainfall Anomaly

It was very wet, especially in California, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Texas, Iowa, and Alabama. Plenty of rain despite La Nina. It was a weak la Nina.

Here is a Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly map.

Most of the Northern Hemisphere was warm, especially over the Arctic, North America, Asia, and Europe.

Here is a Northern Hemisphere precipitation anomaly map.

The wettest area is over Northern California where they go the lion share of the precipitation.

Here is a Northern Hemisphere 500 millibar level anomaly map.

There was ridging over the Southern US, Alaska, and Europe. The ridging kept things warm under. There is troughing over Northwest Canada, Pacific Northwest, Siberia, and Arctic. That kept things cold for winter.

Here is a worldwide sea surface temperature anomaly map.

The La Nina was weak, while Northeast Pacific off the coast of Alaska was mostly cooler than normal. There is unusually warm water in the Bering Strait and Gulf of Mexico.

America
Temperature: 35.90°F
Low Temperature: 25.94°F
High Temperature: 45.86°F
Rainfall: 8.22

1895-2017 Winter Statistics
Winter Temperature Mean: 32.37°F
Winter Temperature Median: 32.49°F
Standard Deviation: 2.06

Winter Low Temperature Mean: 21.91°F
Winter Low Temperature Median: 21.95°F
Standard Deviation: 2.13

Winter High Temperature Mean: 42.84°F
Winter High Temperature Median: 43.08°F
Standard Deviation: 2.10

Winter Rainfall Mean: 6.76
Winter Rainfall Median: 6.69
Standard Deviation: 0.89

It was an abnormally warm and wet winter. The temperature and rainfall are 1 standard deviation. This is abnormal in terms of temperature and rainfall. Here are the top 10 warmest and wettest winters in America.

Top 10 Warmest Overall Winter
1.) 2015-2016 36.78°F
2.) 1999-2000 36.48°F
3.) 1991-1992 36.35°F
4.) 2011-2012 36.34°F
5.) 1998-1999 36.27°F
6.) 1997-1998/2016-2017 35.90°F
7.) 2001-2002 35.66°F
8.) 1994-1995 35.56°F
9.) 2005-2006 35.49°F
10.) 2004-2005 35.46°F

Top 10 Warmest Low Temperature Winter
1.) 1997-1998 26.74°F
2.) 2015-2016 26.65°F
3.) 1991-1992 26.39°F
4.) 2016-2017 25.94°F
5.) 1982-1983 25.88°F
6.) 2011-2012 25.63°F
7.) 1994-1995 25.56°F
8.) 1998-1999 25.49°F
9.) 1999-2000 25.46°F
10.) 2004-2005 25.42°F

Top 10 Warmest High Temperature Winter
1.) 1999-2000 47.50°F
2.) 1998-1999 47.07°F
3.) 2011-2012 47.06°F
4.) 2015-2016 46.92°F
5.) 2001-2002 46.59°F
6.) 1953-1954 46.51°F
7.) 1933-1934 46.43°F
8.) 2005-2006 46.37°F
9.) 1991-1992 46.32°F
10.) 1980-1981 46.05°F
11.) 1975-1976 45.88°F
12.) 2016-2017 45.86°F

Top 10 Wettest Winter
1.) 1997-1998 8.99
2.) 1931-1932 8.86
3.) 1936-1937 8.66
4.) 1982-1983 8.52
5. 1996-1997 8.49
6.) 1978-1979 8.44
7.) 1902-1903 8.23
8.) 2016-2017 8.22
9.) 1915-1916 8.19
10.) 1992-1993 8.17

The overall temperature ties with 1998. The past winter of 2015-2016 is the warmest on record. The low temperature is the fourth warmest on record. The high temperature does not make the top 10 warmest. It shows that low temperatures can be a huge factor. The lack of cold air kept the low temperature warm. However, the wet winter kept the high temperature in check.

Texas
Temperature: 52.97°F
Low Temperature: 40.87°F
High Temperature: 65.07°F
Rainfall: 6.12

1895-2017 Winter Statistics
Winter Temperature Mean: 47.36°F
Winter Temperature Median: 47.30°F
Standard Deviation: 2.37

Winter Low Temperature Mean: 34.95°F
Winter Low Temperature Median: 35.10°F
Standard Deviation: 2.30

Winter High Temperature Mean: 59.75°F
Winter High Temperature Median: 59.50°F
Standard Deviation: 2.85

Winter Rainfall Mean: 4.83
Winter Rainfall Median: 4.72
Standard Deviation: 1.82

Top 10 Warmest Overall Winter
1.) 2016-2017 52.97°F
2.) 1906-1907 52.57°F
3.) 1999-2000 52.10°F
4.) 1998-1999 51.70°F
5.) 1951-1952 51.53°F
6.) 1949-1950 51.13°F
7.) 1956-1957 50.90°F
8.) 1910-1911 50.80°F
9.) 2015-2016 50.77°F
10.) 1908-1909 50.67°F

Top 10 Warmest Low Temperature Winter
1.) 2016-2017 40.87°F
2.) 1906-1907 39.50°F
3.) 1956-1957 39.23°F
4.) 1949-1950 39.10°F
5.) 1991-1992 39.07°F
6.) 2004-2005 39.00°F
7.) 1931-1932 38.87°F
8.) 1937-1938 38.80°F
9.) 1910-1911 38.77°F
10.) 1994-1995 38.57°F

Top 10 Warmest High Temperature Winter
1.) 1999-2000 65.77°F
2.) 1906-1907 65.57°F
3.) 2008-2009 65.23°F
4.) 2016-2017 65.07°F
5.) 1998-1999 64.97°F
6.) 1951-1952 64.77°F
7.) 2005-2006 64.63°F
8.) 1970-1971 64.53°F
9.) 1908-1909 64.23°F
10.) 1975-1976 64.03°F

Top 10 Wettest Winter

Texas had the warmest winter on record. The previous warmest winter was 1906-1907. The reason for the warm winter is largely due to abnormally warm low temperature, which is the warmest on record. The high temperatures is fourth warmest on record. 2000 is the warmest in terms of high temperature. All temperatures are 2 standard deviation, which is definitely abnormally and are out liers. However, rainfall is within 1 standard deviation, which is average.

Upper Texas Coast
Temperature: 61.73°F
Low Temperature: 52.73°F
High Temperature: 70.80°F
Rainfall: 12.25

1895-2017 Winter Statistics
Winter Temperature Mean: 54.06°F
Winter Temperature Median: 54.07°F
Standard Deviation: 2.72

Winter Low Temperature Mean: 44.22°F
Winter Low Temperature Median: 44.13°F
Standard Deviation: 2.80

Winter High Temperature Mean: 63.89°F
Winter High Temperature Median: 63.63°F
Standard Deviation: 2.86

Winter Rainfall Mean: 10.23
Winter Rainfall Median: 9.86
Standard Deviation: 3.51

Top 10 Warmest Overall Winter
1.) 2016-2017 61.73°F
2.) 1949-1950 59.57°F
3.) 1906-1907/1998-1999 58.87°F
4.) 1910-1911/1951-1952 58.77°F
5.) 1956-1957 58.73°F
6.) 1999-2000 58.63°F
7.) 1931-1932 58.30°F
8.) 1922-1923 58.07°F
9.) 2012-2013 58.00°F
10.) 1926-1927 57.93°F

Top 10 Warmest Low Temperature Winter
1.) 2016-2017 52.73°F
2.) 1949-1950 50.63°F
3.) 1931-1932 49.77°F
4.) 1956-1957 49.53°F
5.) 1910-1911 49.33°F
6.) 1998-1999 48.90°F
7.) 1951-1952 48.83°F
8.) 2011-2012 48.70°F
9.) 1922-1923 48.47°F
10.) 1971-1972 48.17°F

Top 10 Warmest High Temperature Winter
1.) 2016-2017 70.80°F
2.) 1906-1907 70.17°F
3.) 1999-2000 69.47°F
4.) 1998-1999 68.77°F
5.) 1951-1952 68.67°F
6.) 2008-2009 68.63°F
7.) 1949-1950 68.57°F
8.) 2007-2008 68.30°F
9.) 1910-1911 68.27°F
10.) 2012-2013 68.10°F

This was a very warm winter and literally abnormally warm. The overall temperature of 2016-2017 exceeds the previous warmest winter of 1949-1950 by 2.16°F! It exceeds by near 3 standard deviations! That is definitely an outlier! The low temperature is also the warmest and exceeds the previous warmest low temperature of 1949-1950. It also exceeds 3 standard deviations! However, the warmest high temperature is a close one. It is only by 0.63°F, which is not a lot. Still, it is 2 standard deviations, which in outlier territory. Winter 2016-2017 is an anomaly in terms of warm temperatures! It goes down in the record books! It was a wetter than usual winter, but within 1 standard deviation. It was due to the heavy rains of January.

Now, let’s look at the Last Frontier, Alaska.

Alaska Divisional Temperature Anomaly

Alaska Divisional Minimum Temperature Anomaly

Alaska Divisional Maximum Temperature Anomaly

Alaska Divisional Precipitation Anomaly

Temperature: 5.73°F
Low Temperature: -1.30°F
High Temperature: 12.80°F
Rainfall: 7.30

1925-2017 Winter Statistics
Winter Temperature Mean: 4.21°F
Winter Temperature Median: 4.57°F
Standard Deviation: 4.61

Winter Low Temperature Mean: -2.85°F
Winter Low Temperature Median: -2.90°F
Standard Deviation: 4.94

Winter High Temperature Mean: 11.26°F
Winter High Temperature Median: 11.67°F
Standard Deviation: 4.31

Winter Rainfall Mean: 8.13
Winter Rainfall Median: 7.91
Standard Deviation: 1.63

Alaska as a whole had a largely normal winter. The average temperature is within standard deviation. The precipitation is also within average as well. While the rest of the Lower 48 was warm, Alaska had a typically Alaskan winter. Even than Alaska can get cold and warm in the winter.

Top 10 Coolest Overall Winter
1.) 1924-1925 -7.20°F*
1.) 1964-1965 -5.03°F
2.) 1970-1971 -3.97°F
3.) 1955-1956 -3.10°F
4.) 1946-1947 -3.07°F
5.) 1942-1943 -2.77°F
6.) 1931-1932 -2.33°F
7.) 1933-1934 -2.23°F
8.) 1974-1975 -2.03°F
9.) 1975-1976 -1.83°F
10.) 1968-1969 -1.53°F

* December 1924 is missing.

Top 10 Warmest Overall Winter
1.) 2000-2001 14.97°F
2.) 2015-2016 14.30°F
3.) 2002-2003 13.43°F
4.) 1976-1977 12.80°F
5.) 2014-2015 11.60°F
6.) 1944-1945 11.30°F
7.) 1985-1986 11.27°F
8.) 1928-1929 11.23°F
9.) 1941-1942 11.03°F
10.) 1986-1987 10.80°F

Top 10 Coolest Low Temperature Winter
1.) 1924-1925 -15.25°F*
1.) 1964-1965 -12.50°F
2.) 1970-1971 -11.47°F
3.) 1955-1956 -10.80°F
4.) 1946-1947 -10.70°F
5.) 1931-1932 -10.60°F
6.) 1942-1943 -9.80°F
7.) 1933-1934 -9.63°F
8.) 1974-1975 -9.43°F
9.) 1975-1976 -9.30°F
10.) 1948-1949 -9.00°F

* December 1924 is missing.

Top 10 Warmest Low Temperature Winter
1.) 2000-2001 8.50°F
2.) 2015-2016 8.13°F
3.) 2002-2003 7.53°F
4.) 1976-1977 6.73°F
5.) 2014-2015 5.37°F
6.) 1985-1986 4.60°F
7.) 1944-1945 4.47°F
8.) 1941-1942 4.43°F
9.) 1928-1929 4.27°F
10.) 2013-2014 4.13°F

Top 10 Coolest High Temperature Winter
1.) 1924-1925 0.90°F*
1.) 1964-1965 2.50°F
2.) 1970-1971 3.53°F
3.) 1942-1943 4.27°F
4.) 1946-1947 4.57°F
5.) 1955-1956 4.60°F
6.) 1933-1934 5.20°F
7.) 1974-1975 5.30°F
8.) 1968-1969 5.33°F
9.) 1973-1974 5.63°F
10.) 1975-1976 5.67°F

* December 1924 is missing.

Top 10 Warmest High Temperature Winter
1.) 2000-2001 21.43°F
2.) 2015-2016 20.47°F
3.) 2002-2003 19.30°F
4.) 1976-1977 18.87°F
5.) 1928-1929 18.23°F
6.) 1944-1945 18.17°F
7.) 1985-1986 17.97°F
8.) 2014-2015 17.80°F
9.) 1941-1942 17.63°F
10.) 1986-1987 17.57°F

Top 10 Wettest Winter
1.) 1928-1929 11.89
2.) 1934-1935 11.55
3.) 1943-1944 11.26
4.) 1927-1928 10.88
5.) 1931-1932 10.78
6.) 1984-1985 10.65
7.) 2000-2001 10.61
8.) 1991-1992 10.38
9.) 1989-1990 10.26
10.) 1930-1931 10.22

Top 10 Driest Winter
1.) 1924-1925 3.12*
1.) 1968-1969 4.13
2.) 1929-1930 5.47
3.) 1949-1950 5.52
4.) 1977-1978 5.78
5.) 1973-1974 5.84
6.) 1933-1934 5.87
7.) 2009-2010 5.87
8.) 1981-1982 5.93
9.) 1972-1973 6.07
10.) 1935-1936 6.17

* December 1924 is missing.

The coldest winter since 1925 occurred in 1964-1965, while the warmest is 2000-2001. The wettest winter is 1928-1929, while driest is 1968-1969. Some of Alaska’s warmest winters occurred when the Lower 48 was cold. It shows if it is cold in the Lower 48, it is more likely to be warmer in Alaska. The cold air has to go somewhere. It is largely due to upper level ridging over Alaska, called the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO). It is largely affected by “The Blob”, which I created a data called the Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP). The warmer the NEPWP is, the more negative EPO is.

Data came from Divisional Data Select, National Temperature and Precipitation Maps, and NOAA/NCEI Climate Division data: Mapping and Analysis Web Tool

Spring 2016 Report

It is deja vu! Spring 2016 was wet like Spring 2015 despite El Nino fading. To make matters worse, there was severe flooding in April and May, which dumped up to 24 inches of rain in both events! That is something you see with tropical cyclones or core rain events with warm core low pressure systems. They are often from tropical cyclones.

For Texas, it has been mostly wet. For others, where’s the rain?

America 2016 Spring
Mean Temperature: 53.68°F
Total Rainfall: 9.03

America Spring Temperature (1895-2016)
Mean: 51.10°F
Median: 50.87°F
Standard Deviation: 1.39
Lowest: 56.18°F (2012)
Highest: 47.37°F (1917)

America Spring Rainfall (1895-2016)
Mean: 7.95
Median: 7.95
Standard Deviation: 0.98
Lowest: 5.58 (1925)
Highest: 10.40 (1991)

It was a warm spring, but not a record breaking spring for America. It is nowhere like 2012. The average temperature is 1 standard deviation from the mean in terms of temperature. That is unusual, but not extraordinarily warm. If it was 2 standard deviation or greater that would be abnormal. It was abnormally warm for spring time in America.

It was much wetter as a whole. In fact, the Spring 2016 rainfall total is exceeds by 1 standard deviation. It was a wet spring for most of America.

Texas 2016 Spring
Mean Temperature: 66.27°F
Total Rainfall: 11.90

Texas Spring Temperature (1895-2016)
Mean: 64.76°F
Median: 64.73°F
Standard Deviation: 1.76
Lowest: 69.67°F (2012)
Highest: 59.93°F (1931)

Texas Spring Rainfall (1895-2016)
Mean: 7.37
Median: 7.05
Standard Deviation: 2.34
Lowest: 2.53 (2011)
Highest: 16.48 (2015)

It was warmer than normal for spring in Texas. It is 1 standard deviation from the mean.

It is wet, but not like 2015, which was wetter. Actually, it is the eighth wettest spring on record as it ties with 1914. It was indeed a wet spring for Texas, like last spring. Having two wet springs back to back is a rarity. Here is the top 10 wettest spring in Texas since 1895.

Top 10 Wettest Spring In Texas
1.) 2015 16.48
2.) 1957 14.75
3.) 1905 12.59
4.) 1941 12.43
5.) 1900 12.36
6.) 2007 12.16
7,) 1922 11.97
8.) 1914/2016 11.90
9.) 1997 10.85
10.) 1929 10.79

Many of the wettest springs occurred when El Nino is developing (1914, 1957, 1997, and 2015), persistent (1905 and 1941) or dying (1900 and 2007). 1922 was La Nina, while 1929 was Neutral. It shows that El Nino does have an impact on spring rainfall,whether is strengthening or dying. Interesting to note hurricanes made hurricanes made landfall in 1900, 1929, 1941, 1957, and 2007. Two were major hurricanes, Galveston Hurricane and Audrey in 1957.

Upper Texas Coast 2016 Spring
Mean Temperature: 71.07°F
Total Rainfall: 20.77

Upper Texas Coast Spring Temperature (1895-2016)
Mean: 68.54°F
Median: 68.42°F
Standard Deviation: 1.69
Lowest: 72.83°F (2012)
Highest: 63.37°F (1931)

Upper Texas Coast Spring Rainfall (1895-2016)
Mean: 10.58
Median: 10.02
Standard Deviation: 4.53
Lowest: 2.43 (2011)
Highest: 24.75 (2015)

It has been a warm spring. It is nearly 2 standard deviations from the mean. It was abnormally warm spring. It is the eighth warmest spring for Upper Texas Coast. Here is the top 10 warmest spring in Texas since 1895.

Top 10 Warmest Spring In Upper Texas Coast
1.) 2012 72.83°F
2.) 2011 72.03°F
3.) 2006 72.00°F
4.) 2000 71.57°F
5.) 1967 71.43°F
6.) 1963 71.40°F
7.) 1908 71.37°F
8.) 2016 71.07°F
9.) 1991 71.00°F
10.) 1925 70.97°F

Spring 2012 was warm everywhere, especially up north. 2011 was very warm as well. Who could forget Summer 2011? It was Hell for sure, which was made worse by the drought. The warmth is due to abnormally warm low temperatures. All that heavy rain makes the air more humid. Humidity keepers temperatures from going too cold or hot. It is the seventh warmest low temperature for spring. Here is a divisional ranking map of low and high temperatures.

It was very west for Upper Texas Coast. It exceeds 2 standard deviations, which makes a near outlier. In fact, it is the third wettest spring on record! Yes, third wettest. There have been two back to back wet springs in the Upper Texas Coast. Here is the top 10 wettest spring in Upper Texas Coast since 1895.

Top 10 Wettest Spring In Upper Texas Coast
1.) 2015 24.75
2.) 1997 22.18
3.) 2016 20.77
4.) 1900 19.54
5.) 1957 19.32
6.) 1929 19.06
7.) 1914 18.54
8.) 1944 18.33
9.) 1993 18.32
10.) 1905 17.60

Many of the wettest springs for Upper Texas Coast occurred when El Nino is developing (1914, 1957, 1997, and 2015), persistent (1905) or dying (1900). 1944 had a developing La Nina from Neutral. 1929 was Neutral. April and May 1929 had heavy rain that led to massive flooding in the Houston area. The 1929 flood is considered an epic flood on par with December 1935 and Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. It shows that El Nino does have an impact on spring rainfall,whether is strengthening or dying. Interesting to note hurricanes made hurricanes made landfall on Upper Texas Coast in 1900, 1929, and 1957. Two were major hurricanes, Galveston Hurricane and Audrey in 1957.

Could this be a harbinger of things to come? America has not seen a Category 3 or stronger hurricane since Wilma in 2005. Now, if we lowered Category 3 by 1 mph from 111 mph to 110 mph, than Ike would be a major hurricane. Even than, America has not seen a major hurricane make landfall since 2008, which is a long stretch. Keep in mind, hurricane re-analysis is happening, so this long stretch of no Category 3 or stronger hurricanes we are seeing may not be the longest.

2014 Weather In Review

2014 has passed into memory lane as we are now in 2015. I cannot belive it is already 2015 as we are midway into the 2010s. 2010 felt like yesterday. 15 years ago, we were talking about the new millenium and Y2K bug. The Y2K bug did not result in anything serious. Anyways, 2014 was a rather interesting weather year.

2014 America
Annual Temperature: 52.55°F
Annual Rainfall: 30.76

1895-2014 Average
Temperature
Mean: 52.14°F
Median: 51.94°F
Standard Deviation: 0.92
Coolest: 50.06°F (1917)
Warmest: 55.28°F (2012)

Rainfall
Mean: 29.96
Median: 30.15
Standard Deviation: 2.16
Driest: 24.91 (1910)
Wettest: 34.96 (1973)

The 2014 temperature was within annual mean and median. Same goes with annual rainfall total. However, some areas had cooler years, while others had warmer years. Same applies with annual rainfall total.

Many Western states had record warmth, especially in Arizona and California. Many areas had cooler than normal temeperatures, especially in the Midwest. However, there are no record cool years for 2014. It is a clash of cold and hot.

Many areas had wetter than normal, while other areas had drier than normal years. None of them are record setting.

2014 Texas
Annual Temperature: 64.91°F
Annual Rainfall: 23.88

1895-2014 Average
Temperature
Mean: 64.75°F
Median: 64.76°F
Standard Deviation: 1.04
Coolest: 62.33°F (1895)
Warmest: 67.78°F (2012)

Rainfall
Mean: 27.02
Median: 26.83
Standard Deviation: 5.10
Driest: 14.06 (1917)
Wettest: 40.22 (1941)

Texas had a normal year temperature wise. In terms of rainfall, it has been dry, but within the standard deviation. Not a good thing as Texas is still in a drought that started in late 2008. However, things are getting better as 2014 is no 2011.

2014 Upper Texas Coast
Annual Temperature: 68.58°F
Annual Rainfall: 41.32

1895-2014 Average
Temperature
Mean: 68.77°F
Median: 68.74°F
Standard Deviation: 1.03
Coolest: 66.53°F (1895)
Warmest: 71.55°F (2012)

Rainfall
Mean: 45.26
Median: 44.48
Standard Deviation: 10.11
Driest: 20.71 (1917)
Wettest: 70.17 (1900)

Looking at the temperature and rainfall for 2014, it is below average. That is largely due to the cooler than normal Winter of 2013-2014 and Spring 2014. Rainfall is below average, but within the norms. 2014 is slightly wetter than 2013. The less rainfall is from the dry Winter, which was quite dry.

So, what made this year warm or cold? Here is a upper level map of the Northern Hemisphere.

There is upper level ridging over Alaska, Eastern Russia, Scandinavia, Western US, and North Central Atlantic. The ridging over the Arctic region causes cold air to go down south. The ridging keeps the Arctic region warmer than normal, while areas outside the Arctic region cooler. There is upper level troughing over the Great Lakes, North Central Pacific, Central Siberia, and Northeast Atlantic. The troughing helps bring down cold air as they are polar vortex that broke off over the Arctic.

I made a prediction for 2014 in the annual weather report for 2013 and said this:

What will 2014 hold in the weather world? I think it could be an interesting one. Perhaps we could see more freezes and snow in the winter. Than tornado outbreaks in the spring. By the time hurricane seasons starts, I think we could see the first major (Category 3 or above) hurricane to make landfall, which would be the first since Wilma in 2005. Until than, time will only tell.

I got one right, last winter was quite cold. The rest I got wrong as tornado activity was low and there was no major (Category 3 or above) hurricane that made landfall on America. However, we did have two major hurricanes in the Atlantic. So, what do I think 2015 will be like?

I think 2015 will see more cold blasts and wintry weather. Cold winters can happen back to back like in the late 1970s or early 1900s. I think tornado season will be average at most. As for hurricane season, I have a bad feeling, somewhere on America will be hit be a major hurricane. America has not been hit by a major hurricane in 10 years! That is the longest streak and I think our luck will run out. Also, the last time we had a year end in 5, it did not bode well. 2005 was a hyperactive season and the year that saw Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma make landfall on America. In fact, hurricane seasons that have years that end in 5 have been bad with the exception of 1905 and 1925.

Fall 2014

The meteorological Fall from September to November has passed into memory lane again. Wow, time flies fast. It is already the start of the meteorological Winter, which is from December to February. It is also Christmas season, which seems to come faster every year before you even realize it. Ho! Ho! Ho! This Fall was a sharp contrast between warm and cold. Not only Fall was interesting weather wise, it was interesting from the medical aspect as Ebola (I got an Ebola blog, so check it out) came to America in Dallas and New York.

America 2014 Fall
Mean Temperature: 54.13°F
Total Rainfall: 7.12

America Fall Temperature (1895-2014)
Mean: 53.66°F
Median: 53.64°F
Standard Deviation: 1.11
Lowest: 50.89°F (1976)
Highest: 56.58°F (1963)

America Fall Rainfall (1895-2014)
Mean: 6.91
Median: 6.92
Standard Deviation: 1.11
Lowest: 4.21 (1939)
Highest: 9.72 (1985)

Temperature for Fall was within average despite a cold November. There are reasons why this Fall is not as cool as one would expect. First, October 2014 was very warm. How warm was October 2014 was for America?

America October 2014
Mean Temperature: 56.89°F

Top 10 Warmest October In America (1895-2014)
1.) 1963 59.36°F
2.) 1947 58.80°F
3.) 1950 57.47°F
4.) 2014 56.89°F
5.) 2007 56.68°F
6.) 1931 56.57°F
7.) 2003 56.55°F
8.) 1934 56.52°F
9.) 1938 56.41°F
10.) 1900 56.35°F

Pretty warm, that it was the fourth warmest on record since 1895. Let’s see November temeprature statistics.

Top 20 Coolest November In America (1895-2014)
1.) 1911 37.27°F
2.) 2000 38.03°F
3.) 1951 38.08°F
4.) 1947 38.10°F
5.) 1955 38.23°F
6.) 1896 38.32°F
7.) 1898 38.39°F
8.) 1929 38.41°F
9.) 1976 38.48°F
10.) 1959 38.66°F
11.) 1972 38.93°F
12.) 1940 39.00°F
13.) 1895 39.16°F
14.) 1993 39.22°F
15.) 1919 39.31°F
16.) 2014 39.33°F
17.) 1991 39.43°F
18.) 1935 39.49°F
19.) 1985 39.51°F
20.) 1996 39.63°F

November 2014 was quite cold. In fact it is in the top 10 coldest winter on record, 16th to be exact. Now, that is cold. November 2000 was colder than November 2014, which occurred in a weak La Nina. Interesting see that some of the coldest Novembers occur in El Nino like 1911, 1972, 1976, and 1991.

Let’s look at Texas. Fall was quite turbulent for Texas as Ebola virus paid a visit to Dallas. Three people came down with Ebola and one of them died.

Texas 2014 Fall
Mean Temperature: 65.80°F
Total Rainfall: 8.09

Texas Fall Temperature (1895-2014)
Mean: 65.61°F
Median: 65.63°F
Standard Deviation: 1.55
Lowest: 60.00°F (1976)
Highest: 69.87°F (1931)

Texas Fall Rainfall (1895-2014)
Mean: 7.32
Median: 7.26
Standard Deviation: 2.47
Lowest: 2.95 (1917)
Highest: 13.37 (1919)

Like America, even though November was cold, Fall 2014 was within the mean. The reason has to do with October. Here is the top 10 warmest October for Texas.

1.) 1947 71.80°F
2.) 1931 70.80°F
3.) 1934 70.70°F
4.) 1963 70.30°F
5.) 1950 69.80°F
6.) 2014 69.80°F
7.) 2004 69.70°F
8.) 1956/1962 69.40°F
9.) 1926 69.20°F
10.) 1941 69.10°F

October 2014 is the 6th warmest October on record for Texas. It is even warmer than October 2004, which was very warm for Southeast Texas. At least the Fall rainfall is above average as it is welcomed to put an end to the drought that has plagued Texas. Let’s look at November temperture for Texas.

Top 20 Coolest November In Texas (1895-2014)
1.) 1976 47.80°F
2.) 1929 48.00°F
3,) 1972 48.80°F
4.) 1959 49.10°F
5.) 1895 50.00°F
6.) 1898 50.50°F
7.) 1911 50.70°F
8.) 1932/1991 50.90°F
9.) 1907/1957/1993 51.00°F
10.) 2000 51.10°F
11.) 1979 51.20°F
12.) 1936/1961 51.30°F
13.) 1918/2014 51.40°F
14.) 1920/1947 51.60°F
15.) 1951/1992 51.80°F
16.) 1939 51.90°F
17.) 1980 52.10°F
18.) 1956 52.20°F
19.) 1923/1937 52.40°F
20.) 1926/1940/1997 52.50°F

November was cold for Texas as for most of the US east of the Rocky Mountains. Texas experienced its 13th coolest November on record as it ties with 1918. November 2000 was quite cold for Texas as it was very rainy and wet. Of course nothing compares to 1976, which was very cold. Many of these cold Novembers gave way to cold winters for Texas like in 1898, 1911, 1972, 1976, and 2000. Could this be a harbinger to come? Now, let’s look at Upper Texas Coast.

Upper Texas Coast 2014 Fall
Mean Temperature: 70.13°F
Total Rainfall: 12.52

Upper Texas Coast Fall Temperature (1895-2014)
Mean: 70.22°F
Median: 70.25°F
Standard Deviation: 1.58
Lowest: 64.27°F (1976)
Highest: 74.23°F (1931)

Upper Texas Coast Fall Rainfall (1895-2014)
Mean: 12.35
Median: 11.58
Standard Deviation: 4.90
Lowest: 3.12 (1924)
Highest: 27.47 (1998)

Again, despite a cold November, Fall 2014 had temperatures within the mean. There was a stark contrast between hot October and cold November. Here is the top 10 warmest October for Upper Texas Coast.

Top 10 Warmest October In Upper Texas Coast (1895-2014)
1.) 2004 76.80°F
2.) 1931/1941 75.40°F
3.) 1919/1947 75.10°F
4.) 1926/1962 74.20°F
5.) 1934 73.90°F
6.) 1963 73.80°F
7.) 1933 73.40°F
8.) 1956/1984/1998 73.30°F
9.) 1935 73.20°F
10.) 1928 73.10°F
11.) 2014 73.00°F
12.) 1950 72.90°F
13.) 1973 72.80°F
14.) 1954 72.70°F
15.) 1897/1938 72.60°F
16.) 1960/2007 72.50°F
17.) 1899/1927/1971/2006 72.40°F
18.) 1951/1991 72.30°F
19.) 1900 72.20°F
20.) 1946/2000/2013 72.10°F

It is the 11th warmest October on record. It is nowhere near the warmest October, which is 2004 and it was really warm. Interesting to note that following October 2004, it was a stormy and wet November and snow December with snow falling on Christmas Eve and Christmas. Many areas saw 1 to 3 inches with amounts as high as 13 inches! That is on level with the February 14-15, 1895. The Christmas Even 2004 snow event is easily 1 in 100,000 event for December or 1 in 1,000 event between December to March. White Christmas have never been recorded in Southeast Texas. I suspect White Christmas have happened on the Upper Texas Coast in the past, likely in the mid 19th century when there have been some big cold blasts. So, how did November compare to past November?

Top 20 Coolest November In Upper Texas Coast (1895-2014)
1.) 1976 52.80°F
2.) 1929/1972 55.20°F
3.) 1959 55.30°F
4.) 1932 55.40°F
5.) 1911 56.10°F
6.) 1898 56.30°F
7.) 1907 56.50°F
8.) 1895/1936 56.60°F
9.) 1979 56.90°F
10.) 1939/1980 57.00°F
11.) 1991 57.10°F
12.) 1993 57.20°F
13.) 1920/1923 57.30°F
14.) 1941/1992/2014 57.40°F
15.) 1937/1943 57.50°F
16.) 1918/1970 57.60°F
17.) 1926 57.80°F
18.) 1951 58.10°F
19.) 1917 58.30°F
20.) 1912/1947/1997 58.40°F

It was a cold November for Upper Texas Coast as it is in top 20. It ranks 14th coldest November on record. There were cold Novembers back to back from 1991 to 1993. November 1976 is truly an outlier as it was very cold. In fact, there was freezing rain and sleet on November 28-29, 1976. Like most of America, Winter 1976-1977 was a very cold winter for Upper Texas Coast.

Interesting to note that the coldest Fall for America, Texas, and Upper Texas Coast is 1976. The Winter of 1976-1977 was very cold and one of the coldest on record. This past Fall does not come anywhere near 1976. Fall 1976 is truly rare. So, what could Winter 2014-2015 will be like? I will issue a forecast soon.

Spring 2014 Report

Spring has passed as we approach summer as the days get longer. So, did winter choose to remain despite the fact the calendar says spring? Some areas were still cold and ice still prevailed in the Great Lakes. It was warm in the Western US as they are still languishing in a drought.

America
Temperature: 51.13°F
Rainfall: 8.01

1895-2014 Spring Statistics
Spring Temperature Mean: 51.06°F
Spring Temperature Median: 50.82°F
Standard Deviation: 1.36

Spring Rainfall Mean: 7.93
Spring Rainfall Median: 7.91
Standard Deviation: 0.97

America as a whole had a largely normal spring because of the stark contrast in temperature and rainfall. Some regions were cooler, while others were warmer. In terms of rain, some regions got more, while others got less. So that cancels each other out. This surface temperature anomaly map shows the eastern half of the US was cooler, while western half of the US was warmer. Most of the cold air was over Canada and Upper Midwest. Most of Arctic, Asia, and Europe had warmer than normal spring.

One wonders why was the Eastern US cooler than the Western US this past spring. Look at a 500 millibar level geopotential height to look for anomalies. A positive anomaly is persistent ridging, while negative anomaly is persistent troughing. Here is a map of the 500 millibar level geopotential height anomaly map.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is in a positive phase, as there is persistent troughing over Greenland and Northeastern Canada. A positive NAO usually means warmer than normal winter when NAO is positive. However, there is persistent ridging over Alaska. That area is called Nort Pacific Oscillation (NPO) or East Pacific Oscillation (EPO). When there is ridging over Alaska, the NPO/EPO is negative, while troughing over Alaska means positive NPO/EPO. The NPO/EPO is similar to NAO, but over the North Pacific Ocean. A negative NPO/EPO gives America a cooler than normal winter. It can have much influence than NAO, like this past winter, which was a cold one. Another cold winter where the NAO was positive, but NPO/EPO was negative is the winter of 1983-1984. That winter was really cold, especially December 1983.

Now, let’s look at the great state of Texas’s spring.

Texas
Temperature: 64.13°F
Rainfall: 6.12

1895-2014 Spring Statistics
Spring Temperature Mean: 64.75°F
Spring Temperature Median: 64.73°F
Standard Deviation: 1.77

Spring Rainfall Mean: 7.26
Spring Rainfall Median: 7.05
Standard Deviation: 2.16

Like America, Texas had a normal spring in terms of temperature and rainfall. The temperature is below average, but within average. Texas saw normal March rainfall as it got beneficial rains to put a dent on the drought. However, Texas needs more rain to end this drought, which will hopefully be case with El Nino. So, how did Houston area fared in Spring.

Upper Texas Coast
Temperature: 66.93°F
Rainfall: 11.12

1895-2014 Spring Statistics
Spring Temperature Mean: 68.50°F
Spring Temperature Median: 68.39°F
Standard Deviation: 1.68

Spring Rainfall Mean: 10.38
Spring Rainfall Median: 9.91
Standard Deviation: 4.28

It is not your imagination that Spring 2014 was cool in Southeast Texas. It was cooler than normal despite the fact that Texas and America had normal spring. The Upper Texas Coast cracked the top 20 coolest spring on record. It is even cooler than Spring 2013. Winter prevailed in Spring 2014 for Upper Texas Coast. This is despite the fact it is within the mean, but close enough to be outside the mean to be considered abnormal. Here is the top 20 coolest spring in the Upper Texas Coast.

Top 20 Coldest Spring
1.) 1931 63.37°F
2.) 1915 64.87°F
3.) 1926 65.53°F
4.) 1913 65.63°F
5.) 1983 65.67°F
6.) 1914/1969 65.87°F
7.) 1952 65.90°F
8.) 1924/1960 66.07°F
9.) 1941 66.40°F
10.) 1947 66.53°F
11.) 1970/1993 66.57°F
12.) 1912 66.60°F
13.) 1919 66.63°F
14.) 1917 66.67°F
15.) 1932 66.77°F
16.) 1942 66.83°F
17.) 1937 66.90°F
18.) 2014 66.93°F
19.) 1928/1962 67.03°F
20.) 1930 67.07°F

Spring 2014 is the 18th coolest spring on record since 1895! Spring 2013 is 22 coolest spring on record and ties with Spring 1901 as the average was 67.13°F. Interesting to note following a cool spring, a major hurricane has made landfall on the Upper Texas Coast in these years. Here are the correlation values between Spring Temperatures (March to May) and tropical landfall on the Upper Texas Coast.

Tropical Storm
r = 0.03
p = 0.71

Hurricane
r = 0.11
p = 0.22

Major Hurricane
r = -0.21
p = 0.02

All Landfall
r = 0.00
p = 0.99

There is a significant negative correlation between cool springs and major hurricanes making landfall on the Upper Texas Coast. Cooler the spring, the more likely a major hurricane is likely to make landfall. It is significant because the p-value below 0.05. Anything above 0.05 is not significant. Four of the top 20 coolest spring had a major hurricane make landfall during the hurricane season from June to November.

Major Hurricane
1915-Galveston Hurricane of 1915 (Category 3)
1932-Freeport Hurricane (Category 4)
1941-Hurricane #2 (Category 3, Based on Reanalysis)
1983-Alicia (Category 3)

Hurricanes
1947-Hurricane 3 (Category 1)

Interesting to note that San Antonio Spurs won the NBA Championship, a hurricane made landfall. Here are the championship years for Spurs and hurricanes that made landfall.

1999-Bret
2003-Claudette
2005-Rita
2007-Humberto
2014-?

Two are Category 3 or above, while the other two are Category 1. In Humberto’s case, had it stayed over the Gulf of Mexico longer, it easily would have been a Category 3 or above hurricane. Thankfully that never happened as it made landfall east of Galveston on September 13, 2007 at 2:00 AM. Eerily, exactly one year later on that day and time, a much larger hurricane, Hurricane Ike, made landfall on the eastern part of Galveston Island.

However, none of them had an El Nino developing that year. Most were either Neutral (2003) or going into La Nina (1999, 2005, and 2007). El Nino is forecasted to develop for this year and that reduces storm formation from westerly wind shear. However, during El Nino years, storms form closer to land and increase their chance for landfall. My spring forecast for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season used years that saw El Nino developing early. Looking at it this 2014 analog GIS heat map, many of them end up in the Gulf of Mexico, particularly the Central and Western Gulf of Mexico.

Notice the highest risk for storms to hit are the Central Gulf Coast region, which is Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Southeast Texas is also in a high risk area for landfall during an analog season where El Nino is developing. It proves that even a less active season is just as dangerous as an active season.

2013 Weather In Review

The unlucky 13 of 2013 has passed into memory lane. Now, we are in 2014. We will not see another year with the number 13 until 2113, which is 99 years from now. I doubt I will be around that time. Anyways, 2013 was a rather interesting weather year as you can see in the top 10 2013 weather events I compiled. Let’s see how 2013 fared in rainfall and temperature by region.

2013 America
Annual Temperature: 52.40°F
Annual Rainfall: 31.16

1895-2013 Average
Temperature
Mean: 52.19°F
Median: 51.99°F
Standard Deviation: 0.91

Rainfall
Mean: 29.18
Median: 29.31
Standard Deviation: 2.16

2013 in America is rather interesting. In terms of temperature, it was within annual mean and median. However, when it comes to rainfall, it is close to being abnormally wet, but within the standard deviation. 2013 is a far cry from 2012, which was a very warm year. Here are two maps that show the difference in in temperature and rainfall by state. Dry in the West and wet in the Midwest and East. Here is a map by state.

Even though, America was wetter than normal, the drought persists and is getting worse, especially in the Western US. It is most severe in California, where the drought is likely the worst since 1500s. The culprit is a cool Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is the same reason why Texas is dry. A cool PDO causes the jet stream to go further north, carrying storm systems that produce rain further north, which is amplified with La Nina.

There is also a persistent ridge at 18,000 feet or 5,600 meters over the Pacific, Western Canada, and Alaska. I generated this maps and it clearly shows that. The ridging diverts storms northwards around the ridge and the storm goes southwards towards the Upper Midwest. The ridging is what deprives the Western US their rain.

The same ridging is also causing Alaska and Western Canada to be warmer than normal. The ridging allows the air to warm, while diverting cold air to the south. Ridging over the North Pacific and Alaska is sign of a negative East Pacific Oscillation (EPO). EPO is North Pacific equivalent to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A negative NAO causes ridging over Northeast Canada and Greenland, and causes cold air to go down south. Negative NAO is a strong factor in cold winters like 2009-2010.

On the topic of the effect of PDO and EPO on Texas, let’s go straight to Texas.

2013 Texas
Annual Temperature: 65.10°F
Annual Rainfall: 27.39

1895-2013 Average
Temperature
Mean: 65.11°F
Median: 65.08°F
Standard Deviation: 0.98

Rainfall
Mean: 27.93
Median: 27.43
Standard Deviation: 5.29

The 2013 temperature average and rainfall total is within the standard deviation. It is not often that happens as Texas is prone to either extreme cool or hot and dry or wet years. In fact, 2013 was a normal year in terms of temperature and rainfall.

Granted, Texas is still in a drought, but in a better shape than in 2011. However, I am a bit concerned the drought could return if we do not see more rain. On the topic of Texas, let’s head to the Upper Texas Coast.

2013 Upper Texas Coast
Annual Temperature: 69.33°F
Annual Rainfall: 44.52

1895-2013 Average
Temperature
Mean: 69.46°F
Median: 69.43°F
Standard Deviation: 0.95

Rainfall
Mean: 47.64
Median: 46.34
Standard Deviation: 10.42

Like America and Texas, Upper Texas Coast had normal temperatures despite a heat wave in late June, where Houston saw 107°F. The reason for the slightly cooler year is that Spring 2013 is one of the coolest on record. Rainfall was within standard deviation despite dry months in 2013. Some months would be dry, while other times it would be wet. If it was not for the heavy rains of April, May, and October, 2013 would have been a dry year for the Upper Texas Coast.

Even though Upper Texas Coast had near normal rainfall total and heavy rain events have happened, I am concerned about drought as we are still in a cool PDO phase, which I mentioned previously in regards to California’s drought problem. The past five years has not seen an abnormally wet year. The last time that happened was in 2007. Here is a divisional map.

It shows the climate divisions in the Upper Midwest had record breaking wet years, especially in the Michigan, Dakotas, and Montana. In fact, North Dakota and Michigan had their wettest year on record. Large area of California and parts of Idaho had their driest year on record. The drought in California is worse than in 1977. Many areas saw record wet and dry years in 2013 as you can see in the divisional map.

In terms of temperature, most areas were slightly cooler than normal. There are pockets of warmth, but if you want really warm years, go West. Many areas in California were warm, but not record breaking warmth. No area shattered records in temperature in 2013.

What will 2014 hold in the weather world? I think it could be an interesting one. Perhaps we could see more freezes and snow in the winter. Than tornado outbreaks in the spring. By the time hurricane seasons starts, I think we could see the first major (Category 3 or above) hurricane to make landfall, which would be the first since Wilma in 2005. Until than, time will only tell.

2013-2014 Winter Forecast

Winter is almost here again. The Christmas Creep is getting earlier and earlier each year at retail stores as the Christmas season is shorter as Thanksgiving is on November 28, 2013. Some predict this winter will be cooler than normal. The last two winters were warm, 2011-2012 being the third warmest on record. Last winter was the 19th warmest on record. Since, there have been two warm winters, does this mean, we could have a cooler than normal winter?

Looking at data from the past, when there have been two warm winters, the following winter is cooler. For example 1998-1999 and 1999-2000 winter were warm, while 2000-2001 was cool. The winter of 1998-1999 and 1999-2000 are the top warmest winters on record. The winter of 2000-2001 is the 27th coolest winter on record. This is based on data going back to 1895.

What do I look at to predict what this coming winter will be like? I look at El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). PDO and AMO last for years, while ENSO lasts for months. I usually tend to look at ENSO as a strong factor in winter forecasts. Many El Nino forecast have a Neutral phase for this winter. In this case, a cool Neutral, which is below the threshold of La Nina, which is -0.5° C. Last winter was a Neutral in the cool zone. So, I am going to pick analogs in which the following winter is Neutral, like the previous winter. Here are the analogs if I just look at El Nino.

1927-1928
1932-1933
1935-1936
1946-1947
1948-1949
1952-1953
1960-1961
1964-1965
1981-1982

Here is what those winters looked like in terms of temperature and precipitation. I used 20th Century Reanalysis Monthly Composites to generate the map.

In terms of temperature, Northern Canada, Alaska, Eastern Siberia, Korean Peninsula, Japan, and Northern Europe are cold. This also includes the Western and Upper Midwest of America. Texas and the South is warm. However, there have been Arctic blasts that have affected Texas and America in almost all the analog winters. Some winters saw more than one Arctic blasts. Some analog winters had no Arctic blasts at all, like 1952-1953, 1960-1961, and 1964-1965.

12/31/1927 to 1/5/1928
12/15/1932 to 12/19/1932
2/7/1933 to 2/12/1933
1/18/1936 to 1/20/1936
1/27/1936 to 1/31/1936
2/17/1936 to 2/19/1936
12/29/1946 to 1/5/1947
1/28/1949 to 2/1/1949
1/9/1982 to 1/17/1982

These were hard freezes in particular 1932, 1933, 1949, and 1982 for America, Texas, and Southeast Texas. The winter of 1935-1936 is one of the coldest winters on record for America, which was during the Dust Bowl. Now, let’s look at the precipitation rate.

In terms of rainfall, South and West are drier, while Pacific Northwest is wetter. Southern China and Central Europe are dry, while North Africa is wet. However, there have been flooding in those analog years in Texas. Here are the analog years that had flooding.

12/6/1935 to 12/8/1935-Massive flooding in Houston area from up to 20 inches of rain.
2/18/1982 to 2/21/1982-Heavy rain in Deep South Texas of over 7 inches of rain.
2/24/1982 to 2/26/1982-South Texas gets heavy rain centered around Corpus Christi area of over 6 inches of rain.

Here is a map of rainfall and temperature average and anomaly in the analog winters for Lower 48. It is generated from <a href=http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/US Climate Division Dataset Mapping Page.

The map shows normal rainfall for most of America. The dry areas are in California, Arkansas, and Missouri. The wet areas are Southeast and Pacific Northwest. In terms of temperature, most of America is cooler than normal, especially Western and Upper Midwest. Just looking at the map, this suggests that America could be in for a cool winter. The data is all based on 1981 to 2010 average temperature and rainfall. Now, let’s look at the average and standard deviation for America based on anomaly of 1895 to 2013. The data is from Division Data Select.

America Winter Analog
Temperature
Mean: 31.85°F
Median: 31.80°F
Lowest: 28.05°F (1936)
Highest: 35.54°F (1953)

Precipitation
Mean: 6.58
Median: 6.82
Lowest: 5.14 (1946-1947)
Highest: 7.78 (1948-1949)

Overall Winter Temperature (1895-2013)
Mean: 32.50°F
Median: 32.72°F
Standard Deviation: 1.99

Overall Winter Precipitation (1895-2013)
Mean: 6.43
Median: 6.39
Standard Deviation: 0.88

The winter temperature is below average, but within standard deviation for all of America, coast to coast. It is still chilly as it is below freezing. The Winter of 1935-1936 is one of the coolest winters on record, which suggest this winter could be quite cool, possibly the coolest since 2009-2010. I am not suggesting we are going to have a bitterly cold winter like in 2009-2010. In terms of rainfall for all of America, it is also within average. Let’s look at coldest winters for America from 1895-2013.

Coldest Winter For America (1895-2013)
1.) 1978-1979 26.72°F
2.) 1894-1895 27.00°F*
3.) 1935-1936 28.05°F
4.) 1898-1899 28.20°F
5.) 1909-1910 28.48°F
6.) 1904-1905 28.96°F
7.) 1928-1929 29.08°F
8.) 1977-1978 29.13°F
9.) 1917-1918 29.43°F
10.) 1916-1917 29.44°F
11.) 1911-1912 29.71°F

* December 1894 is missing from Divisional Data.

The winter of 1935-1936 is the third coolest winter on record! There was a cold wave that started in December 1935 to February 1936. Some states saw some of the coolest winters on record. I am not saying this could happen this winter, but it is a possibility. Interesting to see back to back cold winters like in the late 1910s and 1970s. America in those analog years can be abnormally dry or wet. Now, let’s look at the average and standard deviation for Texas based on anomaly of 1895 to 2013.

Texas Winter Analog
Temperature
Mean: 47.24°F
Median: 47.43°F
Lowest: 45.43°F (1935-1936)
Highest: 49.53°F (1952-1953)

Precipitation
Mean: 5.44
Median: 5.17
Lowest: 3.24 (1981-1982)
Highest: 8.60 (1960-1961)

Overall Winter Temperature (1895-2013)
Mean: 47.97°F
Median: 47.93°F
Standard Deviation: 2.29

Overall Winter Precipitation (1895-2013)
Mean: 5.10
Median: 4.93
Standard Deviation: 1.90

The winter temperature for Texas is slightly below average, but within average. Despite the slightly below average temperature, Texas has seen some huge freezes in those analog years. Many were hard freezes. Also, one of the coldest winters on record for Texas occurred in the analog year, 1935-1936. In terms of rainfall, it is wide range from 3.24 to 8.60 inches. Texas could see a wet winter, which is a good thing for the drought situation. Let’s look at coldest winters for Texas from 1895-2013.

Coldest Winter For Texas (1895-2013)
1.) 1894-1895 42.45°F*
2.) 1898-1899 42.50°F
3.) 1904-1905 42.87°F
4.) 1977-1978/1978-1979 43.23°F
5.) 2009-2010 43.30°F
6.) 1983-1984 43.77°F
7.) 1963-1964 43.80°F
8.) 1972-1973 44.37°F
9.) 1911-1912 44.50°F
10.) 1976-1977 44.87°F
11.) 1935-1936 45.43°F

* December 1894 is missing from Divisional Data.

Again, the winter of 1935-1936 is one of the coolest on record, like it is for America. If Texas is cold, than America is cold for the most part. Texas was quite cold in the winter of 1935-1936. Now, let’s look at the average and standard deviation for Upper Texas Coast based on anomaly of 1895 to 2013.

Upper Texas Coast Winter Analog
Temperature
Mean: 54.43°F
Median: 54.13°F
Lowest: 51.67°F (1935-1936)
Highest: 57.07°F (1948-1949)

Precipitation
Mean: 10.85
Median: 10.17
Lowest: 7.05 (1946-1947)
Highest: 17.20 (1960-1961)

Overall Winter Temperature (1895-2013)
Mean: 55.12°F
Median: 55.20°F
Standard Deviation: 2.63

Overall Winter Precipitation (1895-2013)
Mean: 10.72
Median: 10.21
Standard Deviation: 3.46

The Upper Texas Coast, which comprises of Houston, Galveston, and Beaumont also sees below average temperature. Again, like America and Texas, it is within standard deviation. It is also slightly wetter than average, but again not abnormally wet. It is wide range from 7.05 to 17.20, which raises the possibility of a wet winter. As mentioned, Houston area was hard hit by massive flooding from heavy rains in December 1935. Houston area had been hit by hard freezes in those analog years. Some of these freezes had lows in the teens and stayed freezing for more than 24 hours. The winter of 1935-1936 is also one of the coldest for Upper Texas Coast. Let’s look at coldest winters for Upper Texas Coast from 1895-2013.

Coldest Winter For Upper Texas Coast (1895-2013)
1.) 1977-1978 48.90°F
2.) 1894-1895 49.20°F*
3.) 2009-2010 49.63°F
4.) 1904-1905 49.83°F
5.) 1898-1899 50.13°F
6.) 1963-1964/1976-1977 50.23°F
7.) 1983-1984 50.57°F
8.) 1978-1979 50.70°F
9.) 1939-1940/1972-1973 51.03°F
10.) 1962-1963 51.43°F
11.) 1935-1936 51.67°F

* December 1894 is missing from Divisional Data.

Again, to see one of the coldest winter on record for Upper Texas Coast in the analog year, which is 1935-1936. Interesting to see some of the coldest winters happened back to back from like 1962 to 1964 and 1976 to 1979. The most recent coldest winter was 2009-2010. It was quite a cold winter.

The January 1928 freeze set records for Houston in low temperature and lowest high temperature on New Years Day 1928, which is yet to be beaten. The 1949 freeze had sub-zero temperature in Bryan/College Station and teens in Houston. January 1982 had lows near the single digit in Houston area. Snow and ice have fallen in those analog winters. Here are snow and ice records in Houston that fell in the analog winters.

Snow
January 30, 1949 2.6
January 25, 1961 Trace

Ice
January 25, 1961
February 24, 1965
January 12-14, 1982

There is a possibility that the freeze may bring snow and/or ice this winter. Again, I am not suggesting we will see that, but it is something to consider for this winter. The last time any snow fell in Houston was on February 23, 2010, when a trace fell. The last time there was an ice storm was February 4, 2011.

If we use statistics of analog seasons to forecast 2013-2014 Winter, this suggest a cooler and wetter winter for America, Texas, and Upper Texas Coast. If I was to go by rainfall total for this winter, it could certainly help the drought situation in some areas. I would not be surprised if there are some huge freezes this winter and some could be historic on par with February 1933, January/February 1949, January 1982, or even December 1989. These freezes were hard freezes.

When I see two warm winters back to back, the next one is likely to be cooler. However. there have been more than two warm winters back to back, which happened from 1998 to 2000. Two of the three occurred in La Nina, while one occurred in strong El Nino. The winter of 2000-2001 was quite cold.

As for North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific North American (PNA), and East Pacific Oscillation/North Pacific (EPO/NP), they change quickly as they are in the atmosphere. As for Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), it changes every 2 years. However, ENSO, PDO, and AMO can impact them. For example, cool PDO generally means negative PNA. However, there can be positive PNA during cool PDO. I believe the freezes we could see is going to be from a negative NAO and AO. Many freezes have occurred when NAO and AO went negative. A negative NAO and AO is when ridging occurs over Greenland, which allows cold air to go southward.

I will likely issue another winter forecast as I have a better idea of El Nino, PDO, and AMO will be like by December. Also, I should have a better idea for where the NAO, AO, PNA, and EPO/NP is heading.

Summer 2012

Whew! The meteorological summer (June 1st to August 31st) is over and we are about to enter fall. Some areas were really hot and dry, while others were cooler and wetter. It depended on where you lived. The more north you are, the warmer and drier it was, while the more south you were, the cooler and wetter it was. 2012 Summer was a summer of contrast. So, how did Summer 2012 turn out?

Let’s start with America. All data is based on data from 1895 to 2012.
2012 Summer Average Temperature = 74.41°F
2012 Summer Rainfall Total = 7.39

Summer Average Temperature = 72.23°F
Summer Average Rainfall Total = 8.27

Let’s look at how 2012 ranks for America.

Temperature Ranking
1.) 1936 74.64°F
2.) 2011 74.49°F
3.) 2012 74.41°F
4.) 2006 74.36°F
5.) 1934 74.18°F

2012 is the third warmest summer on record in America from 1895 to 2012. It is way above standard deviation of 0.99 from the average, which is 72.23°F. Summer 2012 is 2.18°F above normal, which way above the standard deviation. Only 1936 and last summer was warmer. Not as hot like last summer, but hot nonetheless. It was very warm, especially in the Midwest, where there is a severe drought. What did Summer 2012 yield in the rainfall department.

Rainfall Ranking
1.) 1930 6.03
2.) 1936 6.34
3.) 1980 6.82
4.) 1934/1954 6.88
5.) 1988 6.89

Summer 2012 is the 17th driest summer on record. It is not in the top 5 driest summer on record. It below standard deviation of 0.77. Interesting to note that the top 5 driest springs occurred in the 1930s and 1980s. The 1930s had the Dust Bowl, the worst drought to strike America in centuries. It was during the Great Depression and no doubt the drought played a role in it. It shows warmer the summer is, the drier it is. Drought is perpetuating in nature.

Now, let’s look at Texas.
2012 Summer Average Temperature = 83.07°F
2012 Summer Rainfall Total = 6.71

Summer Average Temperature = 81.45
Summer Average Rainfall Total = 7.72

Let’s look at how 2012 ranks for Texas.

Temperature Ranking
1.) 2011 86.67°F
2.) 1980/1998 84.27°F
3.) 1934 84.20°F
4.) 1918 83.47°F
5.) 1953/1954 83.37°F

Summer 2012 is the 8th warmest summer on record for Texas. It is way above standard deviation of 1.35. Still in the top 10 warmest summer on record, but cooler than Summer 2011. That was hot right there! The warmest summers occur in drought years, so no surprise again. How does Summer 2012 compare from previous summers in Texas.

Rainfall Ranking
1.) 2011 2.48
2.) 1956 3.48
3.) 1934 3.73
4.) 1952 3.84
5.) 1954 3.95

Texas had 39th driest summer on record. That is an improvement from last summer, which was extremely dry. Summer 2012 was withing standard deviation of 2.20. We could still use more rain as most of Texas is still marred by the drought. Since we are heading into an El Nino, it will be most likely wetter for Texas. That would be a good thing as El Nino is typically wet for Texas. The driest summers occurred in the 1950s, during the horrible drought of the 1950s.

Now, let’s move onto to the Upper Texas Coast.
2012 Summer Average Temperature = 83.13°F
2012 Summer Rainfall Total = 16.13

Summer Average Temperature = 82.63°F
Summer Average Rainfall Total = 13.07

Temperature Ranking
1.) 2011 85.97°F
2.) 1998 85.10°F
3.) 2009 84.73°F
4.) 2010 84.40°F
5.) 1958 84.27°F

Upper Texas Coast had the 24th warmest summer on record. That is dramatic from last summer, which was the hottest on record. Summer 2012 was within the standard deviation of 0.92, so it was a normal summer. Indeed, this summer was cooler than normal. It was warm nonetheless due to the unusually warm low temperatures at night. Was Upper Texas Coast wetter or drier in Summer 2012?

Rainfall Ranking
1.) 2009 5.66
2.) 1924 5.79
3.) 1980 5.87
4.) 2000 5.89
5.) 1954 6.18

Upper Texas Coast saw a huge improvement in summer rainfall, especially with July being quite wet. Summer 2012 is the 30th wettest summer on record. The summer rainfall total was within standard deviation of 4.90, which is normal. Not bad. Last summer was the 8th driest summer on record. The drought for the Upper Texas Coast is over. However, I am hesitant to declare this drought over as most of Texas is still in a drought.

11 years ago tonight, everyone was looking forward to a new day, which was Tuesday, September 11, 2001. That day would be a very tragic day and week. The whole world watched the horrific terrorist attacks unfold on live television and the 4 day never ending news coverage. That tragic day would change America and world.