Drought Misery Index

Posted on March 19, 2013 by texashurricane — Leave a comment ↓

With the ongoing drought, I came up with the Drought Misery Index (DMI), which is similar to the Misery Index for the economy. Here is the formula for Drought Misery Index.

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) + Precipitation (PCP) = Drought Misery Index

Example:
-8.00 + 1 = -7.00

The more negative the DMI, the worse the drought is. Here is the current DMI, based on September outcome.

America
-2.78
-4.78 (PDSI) + 2.00 (PCP)
Lowest: -6.01 August 1934
Highest: +9.91 May 1983

Texas
-2.49
-3.78 (PDSI) + 1.29 (PCP)
Lowest: -7.22 September 1956
Highest: +15.51 October 1919

Upper Texas Coast
0.38
-2.05 (PDSI) + 2.43 (PCP)
Lowest: -4.64 July 1925
Highest: +20.98 October 1949

All data is from the Division Data and it can change as more data is put in and averaged out.

Tagged with: analysis, drought, drought misery index, history, news, rain
Posted in Analysis, Climate, Drought, News, Progress Report, rain, Statistics

April 2013 Hurricane Season Forecast

Posted on April 22, 2013 by texashurricane — Leave a comment ↓

2013 Hurricane Season is fast approaching. Tropical Storm Risk, ImpactWeather, CrownWeather, and Joe Bastardi have issued their April 2013 forecast. Keep in mind this is very preliminary at this time as things change.

Tropical Storm/Hurricane/Major Hurricane ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy ACE/Storm

Colorado State University
18/9/4 ACE: 165

Tropical Storm Risk
15/8/3 ACE: 134

ImpactWeather
16 to 20 Storms/7 to 9 Hurricanes/Did Not Release Major Hurricane Numbers ACE: None

Joe Bastardi
16/12/5 ACE: 165

North Carolina State University
13 to 17 Storms/7 to 10 Hurricanes/3 to 6 Major Hurricanes ACE: None

Right now, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is in a cool phase, while Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is in a warm phase. We are right now in a Neutral phase of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as this past winter was. Most forecast models have ENSO in a Neutral phase to Fall (Northern Hemisphere) or Spring (Southern Hemisphere) 2013. Forecasting El Nino is very tricky and often comes out incorrect as it happened last year and in 2006.

Mid April 2013 IRI/CPC Plume-Based ENSO Forecast

Mid April 2013 ENSO Predictions Plume

Based on phase of PDO, AMO, and previous winter ENSO, the analog seasons for 2013 are 1952, 1960, 1961, 1966, and 2004. Those years started with a Neutral, Weak El Nino, or Weak La Nina and went Neutral, Weak El Nino, or Weak La Nina by the peak of hurricane season to end of the year. 1966 started with Weak El Nino and went to Weak La Nina by end of that year. 2004 started as Neutral and went to Weak El Nino by end of that year. It shows that ENSO is difficult to predict and left leeway as a result. On the other hand, PDO and AMO does not change much. 1952, 1960, 1961, and 1966 were in cool phase of PDO and warm phase of AMO, while 2004 was in warm phase of PDO and AMO. So, how were the analog seasons like.

Analog Years (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1952 7/6/3 87 12.4
1960 7/4/2 88 12.6
1961 11/8/7 205 18.6
1966 11/7/3 145 13.2
2004 15/9/6 224 14.9

2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season analogs.

All were devastating seasons. 1952 had Hurricane Fox make landfall on Cuba as a Category 4 hurricane, making it one of the strongest to make landfall on the island nation. 1960 had a Unnamed Tropical Storm that dumped heavy rain that led to flooding in Texas after a dry spell. Later that season, Hurricane Donna ravaged the the Caribbeans and Florida. 1961 started late, but went into over drive with Carla ravaging the Texas Coast and Hattie ravaging Belize. 1966 had Alma hitting Cuba and Florida, while Inez was a long lived storm that devastated Caribbean, Cuba, Florida, and Mexico. 2004 had Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne ravaged Florida and Alabama within six weeks.

Let’s look at the statistics of the analog seasons.

Mean
10.2/6.8/4.2 149.8 14.4
10/7/4 149.8 14.4

Median
11/7/3 145 13.2

Standard Deviation
3.3/1.9/2.2 63.9 2.6

Let’s look the overall Atlantic Hurricane Season statistics from 1870 to 2012.

Hurricane Season Average (1870-2012)
Mean
9.5/5.5/2.1 92.1 9.7
10/6/2/ 92.1 9.7

Median
9/5/2 84.0 9.1

Standard Deviation
4.1/2.6/1.7 54.0 4.2

The analog years about average number of storms as it is within standard deviation. However, major hurricane, ACE, and ACE/Storm are above average. The analog years 1961 and 2004 have some of the highest ACE on record for the Atlantic basin. This shows it is not number of storms that makes it active, it is how many long lived, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are in a season.

This season may not see as many named storms from 2010 to 2012, but they could be powerful and long lived. Since some of the analog seasons started late like 1961 and 2004, while 1952 had an early start in February. The 2013 season could start late, but I think it will start in June.

However, since 2010, there have been 19 named storms due to the use of satellites. My thinking is the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season could have more named storms than in the analog years.

What is my prediction for this season?
14 to 20 named storms, likely 16 named storms
7 to 10 hurricanes, likely 9 hurricanes
3 to 6 major hurricanes with 5 major hurricanes
ACE is 170 to 230 with ACE likely of 180 to 220.

I think the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season is going to have 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes with ACE of 200. This could be a very active season ahead. The number is subject to change at a later date. I do not expect any El Nino or La Nina to develop at this time. I think this season will most likely be a Neutral ENSO season because of cool PDO, which inhibits any potential El Nino development. This is on top of a warm AMO phase we are in, which started in 1995. Most forecast models show Neutral ENSO, neither La Nina or El Nino.

Let’s see how my May 2012 hurricane forecast compare to the actual 2012 season.

9 to 12 named storms, likely 11 named storms
3 to 6 hurricanes, likely 5 hurricanes
1 to 3 major hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes
ACE is 75 to 100 with ACE likely of 75 to 90.

2012 Actual Number
19 Named Storms
10 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricanes
133 ACE

I was off with the number of storms, hurricanes, and ACE. One can call it a bust. However, I was right with the number of major hurricanes as there were two (Michael and Sandy). The reason I made the lower than normal 2012 hurricane season forecast is that I was expecting El Nino to develop, in which many forecast models forecasted. El Nino never developed in 2012 due to a unusually cool PDO in the Fall of 2012. The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season was largely Neutral phase of ENSO, which allowed a more active season.

Regardless of how many storms form and how late it starts, I think no one is going to be safe and there could be multiple major hurricanes making landfall. This could end the drought of major hurricanes making landfall on America, which started after Wilma in 2005. Again, it only takes one to be a devastating season, like in 1983 with Alicia, 1992 with Andrew, or 2012 with Sandy.

Tagged with: 2013, Atlantic, forecast, hurricane season
Posted in 2013, Atlantic, Climate, Forecast, History, Statistics

2012-2013 Winter Report Progress Report

Posted on March 19, 2013 by texashurricane — Leave a comment ↓

Meteorological Winter of 2012-2013 has passed into memory lane. Time flies fast as Christmas felt like yesterday and it is almost Easter. So, how did Winter 2012-2013 stack up?

America
Temperature: 34.36°F
Rainfall: 7.10

1895-2013 Winter Statistics
Winter Temperature Mean: 33.01°F
Standard Deviation: 1.99

Winter Rainfall Mean: 6.43
Standard Deviation: 0.88

America had the 24th warmest winter on record. Quite warm if you think about it. This winter was cooler as last winter. 2011-2012 Winter was the 5th warmest winter on record. A winter without much snowfall, which gave way to drought and warm year in 2012.

If there is a consolation prize for this winter, it was a wetter than normal winter on top of more snow. America had the 22nd wettest winter on record. That is an improvement from last winter, which had the 24th driest winter on record. It is rain that is needed to put a dent on the drought.

Texas
Temperature: 50.07°F
Rainfall: 4.93

1895-2013 Winter Statistics
Winter Temperature Mean: 47.97°F
Standard Deviation: 2.29

Winter Rainfall Mean: 5.10
Standard Deviation: 1.90

Texas had quite a warm winter as it was above the standard deviation. Texas had the 18th warmest winter on record, which puts it in the top 20 warmest winter from 1895 to 2013. The previous winter had the 35th warmest winter on record. 2011-2012 winter was cooler than the winter of 2012-2013.

Texas had the 55th wettest winter on record. Last winter, Texas had the 10th wettest winter on record. Quite a stark contrast if you think about it. A wet winter gives a cooler winter as there are cloud cover and moisture in the air that moderates the temperature. The rainfall amount is within the normal range as it is within standard deviation. Texas could use more rain to put an end to the drought plaguing Texas.

Upper Texas Coast
Temperature: 58.07°F
Rainfall: 11.45

1895-2013 Winter Statistics
Winter Temperature Mean: 55.12°F
Standard Deviation: 2.63

Winter Rainfall Mean: 10.72
Standard Deviation: 3.46

Upper Texas Coast had the 16th warmest winter on record. It was warm even by Southeast Texas standard, even though they have mild winters. Last winter, the Upper Texas Coast had the 18th warmest winter on record. Another warm winter for the record book and back to back, like in 1998-1999 and 1999-2000. The Ghost of Winter Past did not want to leave the Upper Texas Coast.

The Upper Texas Coast had the 42nd wettest winter on record. Last winter, Upper Texas Coast had the 14th wettest winter on record, which occurred in a La Nina winter. Upper Texas Coast is drier than last year. However, in terms of rainfall, Upper Texas Coast had a normal rainfall as it is within the standard deviation. It is still concerning as there has not been a lot of rain lately as Upper Texas Coast is seeing droughts developing.

So, how did my winter forecast hold up? It held up for the most part. East of the Continental Divide had warmer than normal winters, while west of the Continental Divide and Hawaii were cooler. However, Alaska, Western Canada, and Northeastern Canada was warmer than normal. The analog winters of 1951-1952, 1963-1964, and 2001-2002 have Alaska, Western Canada, and Northeastern Canada cooler than normal. In terms of rainfall, it was much wetter in the Midwest, Great Lakes, Southern Alaska, and Western Canada than in the analog winters. It was much drier in the West Coast and Southeast.

How was the upper level atmosphere like? For the most part it came close. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was positive as there is a upper level high pressure over Greenland. There is also upper level ridging over Northwest Africa. On the other hand, there were strong upper level trough over Russia and Central Europe.

I think my winter forecast held up well. I would give myself a A- as there are rooms for improvements. I base analogs on Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The reason I use PDO and AMO is that they are long term and change about every decade or so. ENSO changes every year, so one year could be La Nina, while the other year is El Nino. El Nino and La Nina have an impact on winter weather.

1951-1952, 1963-1964, and 2001-2002 had cool PDO, warm AMO, and neutral ENSO, which 2013 had. As for spring analogs, I am going to use the same analog winters, which are 1952, 1964, and 2002.

Tagged with: 2012, 2013, analog, analysis, forecast, history, statistics, winter
Posted in 2012, 2013, Analysis, Climate, Disaster, Drought, past, rain, Statistics, Winter

2012-2013 Winter So Far

Posted on February 6, 2013 by texashurricane — Leave a comment ↓

It is now February and Valentine’s Day is coming. Time to get some chocolate and roses. It is also ever getting closer to spring as days start to get longer and longer each day. How has winter turned out so far? Have my analog forecast come out correct, which I issued back in December? To keep you up to speed, the analog winters I used are 1952, 1964, and 2002. Here is what winter has been like for North America from December 2012 to January 2013.

Let’s start with temperature. As you can see in the map, the eastern half of North America has been warmer than normal so far. Greenland is quite warm. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been overall negative, while North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been overall positive, which is rather interesting. Normally, if NAO is positive, AO should be positive as well. However, it is not the case. Another piece to the puzzle is the Pacific North America (PNA) and it trends towards positive. A positive PNA means more chance for cold blasts as it creates ridging over Alaska and Northwest region of North America and diverts cold air further south. There were cold blasts this winter, but not anything that is really impressive. The western half of North America has been cooler than normal, with a pocket of warmth in northwestern America and Canada. Northern Canada where it meets Alaska has been very cold this winter, while western Alaska has been warmer than normal.

Precipitation rate for most of North America has been within normal. Most areas have seen average snowfall total so far, which is better than last winter. Last winter was dry, which meant less snow on the ground. Southeast Texas, around the Mississippi River basin where Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee meet, and Great Lakes region have been wetter than normal. There was flooding in Louisiana, where some areas saw up to 12 inches of rain. The area around that has below normal precipitation rate is around Vancouver and southeast Georgia. We could use more rain as America is gripped in a severe drought.

So, how has my analog forecast hold up? Surprisingly it came close with a few exception. Let’s start with winter temperature. December to January in 1951-1952, 1963-1964, and 2001-2002 were quite warm in the eastern half of North America, while it was cooler in the western half of North America. It is quite cold in Alaska and northern part of Hudson Bay. Strangely, the southern part of Hudson Bay is very warm in those analog years. Greenland is warm in the analog winter years, but not extremely warm.

In terms of precipitation, it has held up to be accurate with the exception of the area around Seattle and Vancouver, which is normally wetter than normal in the analog years. The rainfall has been within average in the southeastern part of Alaska for this winter, which is drier than normal in the analog years. Southeast Texas so far has been wetter than normal, but not by much. In a typical analog year, Southeast Texas gets rainfall within the norms. Not too wet or dry.

So, what would February be like? Again, I will be using the analog years, which are 1952, 1964, and 2002. Looking at the February temperature in those analog years, shows cooler than normal February over the Rocky Mountain, Texas, and South. It is warmer than normal over Canada, Midwest, and Northeast. Northern Canada, Alaska, and Hudson Bay are cold in those analog years. In terms of precipitation, it is drier than normal in the West Coast, Midwest, Ohio River Valley, and Northeast. The area which are wetter than normal are Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, near the coast. It is also wetter than normal in Northwestern Canada and Southeast Alaska.

What does this mean? I think Texas could see a cooler and wetter than normal February. I do not expect an abnormally cool February like in 2010 or 2011. We are in a pattern of seeing rain up mid February as there will be upper level disturbances and lows traversing across America. I cannot rule out snow in February as in one of the analog winters did have snow on February 21, 1964. Granted, it was only a trace of snow, but snow did actually fall.

Just for kicks, here is how December 2012 to January 2013 are compared to past winters since 2009-2010 in terms of temperature and precipitation. It has been a warm winter so far, but not as warm as last winter, which was very warm. You had to wonder what happened to winter in 2011-2012. It felt like Old Man Winter did not want to visit America. There was not much snow cover that winter, which contributed to the drought. Winter snow is inconvenient and annoying to some, but it has a purpose to keep soil moist and have water for farming and drinking. It was cold in 2010-2011 even before February 2011, which brought frigid temperatures throughout America. It was even colder in 2009-2010, which produced one of the coldest winters on record for America, especially in the South, including Texas.

In terms of precipitation, it is not as dry as most places have seen normal rainfall amount this winter. Last winter was drier, especially in the West Coast and East Coast. The winter of 2010-2011 was drier over a large area due to La Nina. The drought in Texas was under way that winter. The winter 2009-2010 was wetter due to El Nino. It was very snowy winter as many areas saw above average snowfall total. All of America was covered in snow in 2009-2010, the most since 1977-1978, another really cold winter of the late 1970s, which stretched from 1976 to 1980.

Tagged with: 2013, analysis, winter
Posted in 2012, 2013, Analysis, Winter

2012-2013 Winter Forecast

Posted on December 24, 2012 by texashurricane — Leave a comment ↓

The world did not end on winter solstice as the Mayan Calendar ends and starts a new one. Tragically, 27 lives, including 20 children were cut too short on December 14, 2012 at Sandy Hook Elementary School. Winter is upon us again, which means it is time to think about Christmas. It is Christmas time and get ready to be merry. Get your stockings and Christmas tree ready for Santa Claus. What kind of gift will Santa give us for winter? Will it be a cold or warm winter or wet or dry winter? Well, let’s look at what this winter will be like.

2012-2013WinterAnalog500mbGeopotentialHeight

Geopotential height for winter analogs.

This winter forecast has proved challenging as I mainly use El Nino to determine what kind of winter we could see. El Nino is pretty much gone due to Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) being very cold. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is also a factor in the winter forecast. This complicates things. To make matters worse, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific North America (PNA), East Pacific Oscillation (EPO)/North Pacific Index (NP), and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) can change quickly as they are atmospheric, not in the ocean. The analogs I would use for this winter are:
1951-1952
1963-1964
1976-1977
1989-1990
1996-1997
2001-2002
2006-2007

I chose them based on the fact we had a La Nina winter previously and are heading into either Neutral to weak El Nino. This makes the winter forecast more complicated than ever with El Nino gone for the time being. Most forecast models have Neutral to next summer. However, I still cannot rule completely rule out a weak El Nino this winter. What is complicating things in regards to to El Nino is PDO, which is in a cool phase. PDO occurs in the Northeast Pacific. The unusually cool PDO is suppressing any El Nino formation on top of the trade winds. There is a correlation between PDO and El Nino. Warm PDO means more chance for El Nino, while cool PDO means more chance for La Nina.

PDO is a major factor. As mentioned, PDO is in a cool phase. When PDO is in a cool phase, the Southern half of the US including Texas is drier because the jet stream is further north due to less temperature gradient. The 1950s and the current drought occurred in a cool PDO. A warm PDO means wetter weather for the Southern US and Texas. The early 1990s was in a warm phase of PDO, which explains why it was so rainy that time in Southeast Texas. On the other hand, a warm PDO means increased risk for drought for Northern US. The 1930s drought, also known as the “Dust Bowl”, occurred in a warm PDO, which meant the jet stream went further south carrying storms away from the Midwest. It was on top of a warm Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The early 1990s was in a cool AMO phase.

So, how were these analog years like in terms of temperature and precipitation? In terms of temperature, it should be cooler than normal in the southern part of the US. Area up north should be warmer than normal. In terms of precipitation, it should be wetter in the South, while areas out West could have a drier than normal winter, which could prolong the drought.

Could this winter see cold blasts that affect most of America? The answer is yes, especially with the NAO/AO trending towards negative. If the NAO/AO is deep in negative territory, 2 standard deviations below, cold air will travel south regardless of El Nino or not. However, not all freezes occur with a negative NAO. We should also look at EPO as well. The December 1983 and February 1989 freeze occurred with a positive EPO, positive NAO, and negative PNA.

Some of these analogs had winter blasts like in the winter of 1976-1977, 1989-1990, and 1996-1997. The winter of 1976-1977 is one of the coldest winters on record for America. December 1989 had a huge Arctic blast where many record lows were set. The 1989 freeze is on par with December 1983, February 1895, and the king of all freezes, February 1899. Will Southeast Texas see snow or ice this coming winter? The answer is possibly as some of the analog winters have seen snow and ice storms. Here are the analog winters that saw snow or ice:

Snow
February 21, 1964
December 22, 1989

Ice
November 28-29, 1976
January 2, 1977
January 12-14, 1997
January 16-17, 2007

Those analog winters saw more ice storm than snow. Ice storms are more dangerous than snow as they cover the road with ice which makes them dangerous to drive on. It is interesting to note that there was an ice storm in late November of 1976. It is the earliest ice storm on record for Houston area.

Another factor that deserves looking into is QBO. It occurs in the stratosphere, which are equatorial zonal wind flow.

Winter Analog Climate Pattern (Based on December to February average)
1951-1952
ENSO-Weak El Nino
PDO-Cool Phase
NAO-Positive
AO-Positive
PNA-Negative
EPO/NP-Negative
QBO-Negative (Easterlies)

1963-1964
ENSO-Weak El Nino
PDO-Cool Phase
NAO-Negative
AO-Negative
PNA-Positive
EPO/NP-Negative
QBO-Positive (Westerlies)

1976-1977
ENSO-Weak El Nino
PDO-Warm Phase
NAO-Negative
AO-Negative
PNA-Positive
EPO/NP-Positive
QBO-Negative (Easterlies)

1989-1990
ENSO-Neutral
PDO-Warm Phase
NAO-Positive
AO-Positive
PNA-Negative
EPO/NP-Negative
QBO-Negative (Easterlies)

1996-1997
ENSO-Neutral
PDO-Warm Phase
NAO-Negative
AO-Negative
PNA-Negative
EPO/NP-Positive
QBO-Negative (Easterlies)

2001-2002
ENSO-Neutral
PDO-Cool Phase
NAO-Positive
AO-Positive
PNA-Positive
EPO/NP-Negative
QBO-Positive (Westerlies)

2006-2007
ENSO-Weak El Nino
PDO-Warm Phase
NAO-Positive
AO-Positive
PNA-Positive
EPO/NP-Negative
QBO-Positive (Westerlies)

Winter divisional climate.

Based on the overall pattern, especially with ENSO and PDO, I think this season is most likely going to resemble winter 1951-1952, 1963-1964, and 2001-2002. The reason is that ENSO is either Neutral or weak El Nino and are in a cool PDO phase. As for NAO, AO, PNA, and EPO, they change constantly since they occur in the atmosphere. They too play a role and can give cold winters regardless of ENSO and PDO. A negative NAO and AO can produce Arctic blasts regardless of ENSO and PDO. Some big Arctic blasts have occurred in La Nina or Neutral due to a negative NAO and AO, like in February 1895, January/February 1951, January and February 1985, and February 2011. However, freezes have occurred when NAO and AO were positive, like in December 1983 and February 1989 where the EPO was positive. What does it tell you? Freezes will happen regardless of ENSO and PDO.

Analog winter weather climate for North America.

Rainfall
Most areas will likely see equal chance for above or below normal rainfall. The map shows that in those analog years, most areas had rainfall within average, with the exception of the West Coast, where they had below rainfall. It is regardless of PDO. However, QBO is in a westerly phase and trending easterly (positive). This could mean some areas may see less rainfall. We shall see how QBO behaves this winter. It would be nice if America saw a wet winter as there is a severe drought going on.

Temperature
The analog years had temperatures that was not abnormally cold or warm. Again, there is an equal chance for cold or warm winter. The cooler temperatures are mostly in the Rocky Mountain region of America. The warm temperatures are east of the Mississippi, especially with a cool PDO. Overall, I think winter will be within average or warmer, not unusually warm like last winter. However, I think there are good chances we could see Arctic blasts especially with NAO and AO trending negative.

I use analog years to get a good idea what the season will be like. I like to look at the past, which I can use to predict the future. Everything has a pattern as nothing is really that random.

I would like to extend my deepest and utmost condolences to the families who lost loved ones in the Sandy Hook Massacre. I wish everyone a Merry Christmas.

Tagged with: 2012, 2013, analog, forecast, winter, winter forecast
Posted in 2012, Analysis, Climate, Forecast, History, Winter

Hurricane Sandy

Posted on November 1, 2012 by texashurricane — Leave a comment ↓

The East Coast is cleaning up from Hurricane Sandy, which has so far have so far claimed 160 lives in America and Caribbean. I expect the death toll to rise, especially in the Northeast. Why was Hurricane Sandy so bad despite only being a Category 1 storm? I will look at Hurricane Sandy.

Hurricane Sandy formed from a tropical wave that moved out of Africa in early October. It entered the Caribbean on October 19 and was tagged as Invest 99L. The Caribbean for the 2012 season is largely not favorable due to wind shear from a weak El Nino that died (indications are that El Nino is returning). The lack of wind shear in the Caribbean and warm water made it favorable for development. The disturbance becomes Tropical Depression 18 and than Tropical Storm Sandy on October 22. Two days later, Sandy becomes a hurricane and heads north towards Jamaica. Sandy makes a direct landfall on Jamaica, near Kingston. Jamaica has not had a landfall since 1988 with Hurricane Gilbert. Than Sandy passes Jamaica and undergoes rapid intensification to 110 mph and makes landfall west of Santiago de Cuba. Satellite presentation suggests that Sandy was most likely a major hurricane and likely will be upgraded.

NAO during Hurricane Sandy.

Sandy heads towards the Bahamas and starts to “weaken”. Actually, Sandy is becoming more extratropical and getting larger. The wind shear has little effect on Sandy as it becomes larger and more intense as the pressure drops. The reason for this is that Sandy is influenced by a trough to the west and maintaining a warm core. Sandy also had the Gulf Stream, which allowed it to intensify further. One would think that Sandy would keep going to the northeast as most storms typically do especially in October due to jet stream. There was a strong high pressure around Greenland and the jet stream around it steered Sandy to the west towards the East Coast. A strong high pressure over Greenland is a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Since that high pressure over Greenland blocked Sandy from going northeast and had no choice but to go westward. A negative NAO also generally means cooler and stormier winters as cold air from the north is pushed southwards.

Infrared image of Hurricane Sandy.

Sandy makes landfall 5 miles southwest of Atlantic City on the afternoon of October 30. By than Sandy is the largest hurricane on record for the Atlantic. It would be like if Super Typhoon Tip hit the East Coast, but not as intense. Most of the heavy rain was near the center, while the strongest winds and storm surge were to the northeast, which puts it over the New York City area. New York area did not get most of the rain from Sandy despite being on the “dirty” side of the storm. Instead they got the highest storm surge of nearly 14 feet at The Battery in Manhattan. The storm surge ravaged New York, Long Island, New Jersey, and Connecticut. It even ravaged areas north of New York along the Hudson River. Flooding was extensive in Lower Manhattan and Northern New Jersey. By the time Sandy passed, about 8 million people lost power, the second most after the 1993 Super Storm.

Let’s look at how Sandy stacks up.

Central Pressure: 945.5 Millibars
Sustained Winds At Landfall: 90 mph
Highest Rainfall: 12.55″ Easton, Maryland
Highest Snowfall: 36″ Richwood, West Virginia

Sandy is the most intense hurricane to hit north of Cape Hatteras. It beats the 1938 Long Island Express Hurricane, which ravaged the East Coast and claimed 600 lives. Sandy was a large rainmaker for areas east of Washington, DC. Not only Sandy dumped heavy rain, it dumped heavy snow in Appalachian Mountains. West Virginia got their first snow of the season in the form of a blizzard. Another interesting thing about Sandy is, it is one of the few hurricanes to make landfall on New Jersey from a westerly direction. Most storms that hit New Jersey are coming from the south, like Hurricane Irene did in 2011. The last storm to hit New Jersey like Sandy did was in 1903 and dubbed Vagabond Hurricane. The Vagabond Hurricane hit in September as a Category 1 hurricane and made landfall near Atlantic City.

Tagged with: 2012, Bahamas, Caribbean, Connecticut, Cuba, Delaware, disaster, Haiti, history, Hurricane Sandy, Jamaica, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, rain, snow, storm surge, Virginia, West Virginia
Posted in 2012, Disaster, History, Hurricane

11 Years Ago Today

Posted on September 11, 2012 by texashurricane — Leave a comment ↓

Let’s take a moment to reflect what happened eleven years ago on this very day at this very moment on September 11, 2001. An airplane, American Airlines Flight 11, crashed into the North Tower of the World Trade Center in New York. Than another airplane, United Airlines Flight 175 crashes into the South Tower on live television. To make matters worse, American Airlines Flight 77 crashes into the Pentagon in Arlington. Back in New York, the South Tower crashes to the ground in a massive bloom of toxic dust and smoke. Meanwhile, passengers on United Airlines Flight 93 fight back against the terrorists. United Airlines Flight 93 crashed into a field near Shanksville, Pennsylvania, Than the North Tower disintegrates in a huge acrid and toxic dust and smoke cloud. Once it was all over at 10:28 AM, 3,000 people lost their lives and untold numbers were injured and many have been sickened from the toxic dust and smoke of the collapsing World Trade Center. For the next four days, everyone was glued to the television watching news coverage of the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks. It brought the world together in grief and unity. There would be many memorial and funeral services. September 11, 2001 is a day that will live infamy and we will all remember that horrible day as long as we live. Never forget 9/11.